Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Income For The New Age

The testimony of Fed chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin on Tuesday have put the two primary supporters of the US economy in the spotlight again. Both said versions of positive phrases like, ‘whatever it takes, more stimulus, and back to work’. Markets anticipated the statements and reacted positively all week. Part of that rally can also be…

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The Growth Era Is Here

Investors everywhere today are seeking answers to the same question: In a complex and uncertain world, where can we find reliable investment returns with reasonable protection from risk? With COVID reshuffling the cards, some clear investment patterns are emerging. Prices tell us what we need to know Prices of high quality businesses have increased significantly from the March lows. The…

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Risks Are Distributed, Not Eliminated

The Federal Reserve remains in the spotlight for supporting markets and businesses. The depth and speed of the actions by the Fed have effectively put a floor under stock prices in the United States. The consequences may include deflation or significant inflation, and neither is a good outcome. Warren Buffett did say last Saturday he was worried about ‘extreme consequences’;…

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Living In The Future

What does the future hold? For optimists, the future is defined by net improvements and net progress. Optimism doesn’t require perfection and human ingenuity is a powerful force. Someday the virus will be gone, we will be able to travel the world worry-free, go to any restaurant at any time, the economy will be chugging along again and those who…

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The Bull Cases

Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin said on April 19th that it will be months, not years, before the US economy is back to its previous strength. He has a big hand in making that happen. The Federal Reserve and the government have introduced record stimulus packages in record time, and clearly they are not finished. In the face of…

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The Eye of the Storm

In the first quarter of 2020, we experienced the first unexpected and unprecedented shock wave from the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimates on what will happen next are open to a wide range of guesses, from a V-shaped recovery (via CNBC) to a brief recession (El Erian), to a global depression (Ray Dalio). There seems to be a consensus that things…

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The Crude Story of Oil

Daily global oil demand was 100 million barrels per day in 2019 and was expected to be slightly more in 2020. In the new COVID economy, daily demand is difficult to determine although it is clearly significantly lower. Some say it is 77 million barrels per day. Some say it is much lower, questioning who is driving cars and who…

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Not So Fast, Major Obstacles Remain

As of late Wednesday bulls and bears can take their pick from a wide menu of opinions. Bulls say a vaccine is coming and the curve is flattening. Bears point to record Fed and government packages that carry a huge cost. The bears, like Jeff Gundlach and Howard Marks, come from the bond market side. Naturally, they see much more…

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Buying Signs In An Uncertain World

Since we have a large amount of cash in client accounts it’s natural that we are looking for signs of when to buy again. It’s important that these signs are real and measurable. There are currently 25 indicators on our internal list in 5 different categories and the list is growing daily. In this article I will mention the major…

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