Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Disrupters, Adapters and Victims
Bill Gates states that we tend to overestimate what we can do in a year and underestimate what we can do in a decade. The migration from the private to the public cloud, e-commerce and the AI revolution are examples of genuinely revolutionary technology. These creations will produce significant gains in efficiency and richness in society over the coming decade….
Is Inflation Worry Justified?
Investors today may be worried about inflation. There is little to no official CPI inflation now, and there has not been any for some time. Around the world, the story is similar because major central banks are coordinating with the Fed. Debt growth and money printing has been explosive this year, causing obvious concern. Let’s look at the unstoppable trends…
Is Today’s Market Like The Bubble of 2000?
A major question on the minds of investors today is, “will this market end badly? Like it did in 2000?” This market may seem disconnected from reality. The market is at, or near, all-time highs. At the same time, the US is suffering from the ongoing pandemic and extreme unemployment. With technology leading the pack by a wide margin, are…
Managing Optionality In Your Investment Portfolio
Consider the balance between resilience and optionality. Resilience is what most traditional wealth management firms focus on, and for good reason. A commitment to investment resilience means owning foundational ‘always there for you when you need it’ investments. Examples include cash, fixed income, many types of real estate, social security, pensions, stable salaries and core equity holdings. However, don’t forget…
Four Months Until the Election
We are now less than four months away from the Presidential election on Tuesday, November 3rd. Our nation’s challenges with accelerated wealth inequality and climate change are larger than any single party’s political agenda. Like the others, this one is likely to be decided quickly, which means we will know the results in the middle of the night. In chaotic…
Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Neutral
Earnings season began this week on Tuesday and will continue through August 9th. The peak day is Thursday, July 30th with 286 companies reporting. The next earnings season won’t be until mid-October. Due to COVID, this quarter stands out as the most opaque, non-indicative earnings season ever. Risk on, risk off is no longer an adequate description for guiding investors…
Data Is Acknowledged In Prices, Not Yet In News
Yuval Noah Harari is well known for his 2011 book, “Sapiens”. It’s a must read for everyone, regardless of their career or backgrounds, as it gives a thoughtful and thoroughly researched background on our civilization’s progress to date. His latest book, “21 Lessons for the 21st Century (2018)”, offers insights on how the information age is shaping our society. Unsurprisingly,…
A Message of Unity
For this July 4th on Saturday we are sending out a picture of the various American Flags that have existed throughout the founding of our country. You can see how the stars and stripes have changed in number and design. These flags are a reminder that our country has changed a great deal in 244 years, and will continue to…
Mid Year Temperature Check for Today
We continue to get mixed news on the market, the economy and the pandemic. Growth stocks are hitting new highs. The US economy is bouncing off the bottom. The pandemic is under control in Massachusetts and out of control in Arizona, Florida, and Texas. What are investor options as we head into the second half of the year? Focus on…
