Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Cyberfraud: It’s not just Nigerian lotteries

It might be easier to take cyberfraud seriously if the emails were not so pitifully absurd and full of grammar gaffes. You know the ones, promising fantastic windfalls (“you are the sole hair”), ridiculous sums (“…of $650 million USAmerica dollars”) and laughable requests (“if please you just must send us your…”).

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Max Osbon Joins Osbon Capital Management

With enthusiasm and pride I am announcing that Max Osbon is joining Osbon Capital Management, effective immediately.  Actually, Max has been active in projects for our company since he was a 19 year-old math and finance double major at Santa Clara University.  That’s when his work first got my attention – it was very fast and very right. Now he’s…

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It’s always something, but rarely everything

Gold’s down this year, fairly dramatically so.  This has some investors proclaiming the shiny stuff’s irreversible demise, or maybe wondering why they ever bought into it in the first place. My view is less dramatic: there’s always something that’s down, but rarely are all asset classes down at the same time. Right now stocks are strong and gold is weak. …

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The history of modern investing on a single sheet

If you invested one dollar in small stocks in 1926 and then took an 87 year nap, you’d be waking up today with $18,000+.  That’s the power of compounding – one of the many interesting concepts portrayed in the annual Andex chart produced by Morningstar. With its exceptional representation of long-term market trends, I consider the Andex chart one of…

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Four flavors of risk

We’ve been discussing risk often on this blog this year, trying to come at it from a number of different angles. It’s one of those core topics in investing that deserves all the attention it gets. No doubt about it, risk is a big word in investing.  Too big, in my view, to have much meaning unless one looks deeper…

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NCAA brackets and the challenge of forecasting

The NCAA basketball pool is a blast every year. Your cleverly selected bracket plays out as a month-long clash between delight and despair as some of your teams heroically advance and others are squished like bugs.  It’s college sports at its best. Predicting winners and losers is a great way to entertain yourself every March, but it’s no way to…

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Passive power

People often refer to index-based investing as “passive” investing. Some view that label as a negative – as if that investment style is somehow weak, unsophisticated, or the refuge of the lazy.  I disagree completely.  And I’ll tell you why. Index based investing, using ETFs (exchange traded funds) to invest in diverse markets, earns its p-word moniker. Index ETFs simply…

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Getting ahead by not falling behind

Over time unforeseen risks can and will accumulate in a portfolio. Interest rate risks, market risks, inflation risks, default risks, and the risk of improper diversification are examples of potential pitfalls that must be persistently monitored.

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Play to win

Wouldn’t it be nice to be fairly sure you were going to win every time you went out on the tennis court or hockey rink? Based on recently released performance stats, I guess Vanguard must know that feeling. Its funds had a good year in 2012, which has been the pattern for quite some time now.  They make it look…

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