Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Free Is Not Free
Schwab made the headlines last week when the company announced it was cutting its trading commissions to $0. While this may seem like a great deal and an obvious win for consumers, there is more to the story and cause to be dubious. Specifically, if Schwab earns nothing via buying and selling securities for its clients, then how does it…
A Sample Of One – Politics and Investing
For the second time in twenty years, talk of impeachment is in the air. Like last time, impeachment probably will happen, likely followed quickly by acquittal. The whole show could be over by the end of the year, according to the Speaker of the House. The markets have greeted this news with a giant yawn. Why isn’t impeachment more of…
Planning Steps for the Fourth Quarter of 2019
The fourth quarter of the investment year starts next week. This is a convenient time to either validate your progress to date or get back up to speed before the close of 2019. Taxes, trust and estates, life insurance, debt, expenses and cash management are worth taking a look into. Here are some steps to guide you to make sure…
Investment Anniversaries: What We Can Learn from Historic Days
Not all investment days are created equal. There’s something about the start of Fall today that brings anniversaries to mind. Many people believe August, September and October are cursed times to invest, that stock plunges are inevitable and imminent. A closer look shows that important anniversaries are spread randomly throughout the year; surges and crashes know no calendar. Let’s take…
Financial Repair Continues
Our two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been in the news this month with positive comments. Their stocks and other securities have responded with a sharp jump, indicating hope that we will return to a healthy mortgage market and get the government largely out of the mortgage business. The securities are officially worthless but speculators are betting…
100-Year Bonds for the United States
The US Treasury has been considering issuing 100-year bonds for some time. Based on recent comments by the US Treasury Secretary this may actually happen this year. These are unusual monetary times that allow the government to lower its financing costs. But what are the implications for US individual investors? Do bonds due in 2120 make sense for you? Current…
The Almighty Dollar
Heading into the final third of the investment year there are few sure things for investors to count on. One sure thing, however, is the US dollar. It has been appreciating slightly for years, and has been strong even though the US economy would be doing better with a slightly weaker dollar. Why do we believe dollar strength will persist?…
Stocks Are Alive and Kicking
Forty years ago a Business Week cover story announced the “Death of Equities.” The Dow was at 867. In the years since, as the Dow has risen 30x, we’ve seen other forecasts for the tragic demise of stocks, all wrong. In 1979, the doomsayers pointed to inflation and high taxes as the forces that would kill stocks. Healthy skepticism is…
Our Favorite Theories, Principles and Laws Named After Famous Thinkers
This week we decided to have some fun by exploring our favorite eponymous laws, theories and principles and how they fit into the world of investing. This is a list I’ve been wanting to write for a while, at least since I discovered Sayre’s law two years ago. The fantastic thing about these observed laws is that they are based…
