Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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The Just-In-Time Economy

In recent weeks we’ve been writing about productivity and what it means for the economy and market performance. One key ingredient in productivity for many firms is the just-in-time production model. Some forward-thinking people believe that just-in-time businesses will smooth out or even eventually eliminate recessions. They have a good point. Just in time – the practice of optimally delivering…

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Productivity Part Two

Last week Max Osbon wrote about the coming productivity surge. This week I am going to write about how good our current productivity is and the key productivity dates coming this Summer. Three days in July might reveal how productivity and the US economy are doing much better than the conventional wisdom believes. At Osbon Capital we are looking at…

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The Hidden Productivity Boom

GDP growth is the clearest sign of a healthy economy, however it is difficult to grow GDP without population growth and productivity gains. With improving productivity, more people can do more things in less time and for less money. There are two kinds of productivity: labor and multi-factor. We need both kinds to grow. Both are thought to be at…

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Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

Senator and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren fired the first shot across the tech bow with a call on March 8th to “break up big tech.” On June 3rd, the government entered the fray, announcing antitrust investigations into Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. Microsoft, the biggest tech company by market value, was a conspicuous non-mention. The four stocks had mixed price…

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Fear du Jour

A trade war that continues to expand, with more countries involved and louder saber rattling. An unpredictable president. Uneven corporate earnings. An approaching election with 25 candidates, each with his or her own policies, prejudices and priorities. A stalemate in Washington, leaving important initiatives like infrastructure stranded at the curb. It’s a lot. No wonder so many people are worried,…

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Our Favorite Tools For Personal Payments and Cash Flow

When it comes to paying for goods and services you have many choices these days. The least attractive (besides the quickly disappearing handwritten check) is physical cash, even for small purchases. Over time it has simply become easier to make purchases without paper or coins. In the post-cash era, new payment providers and startups are fighting to gain users and…

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Four Points to Consider When Holding Debt

There are many ways to borrow money. It could be a mortgage, personal line of credit from a bank, home equity line of credit (HELOC), student loan or a personal loan. When done properly, investors can leverage debt to their benefit. While lenders may make efforts to differentiate their offerings, what matters above all else is the rate you’re paying to service the debt. Let’s take a look at the range of interest rates and three other key elements to borrowing.

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The Fiduciary Care Checklist

Last week’s Beyond Meat IPO was stellar as the Uber IPO was about to arrive. Then Uber flopped big time. And new tariffs with China sent markets straight down. Events like these can make you wonder what steps you need to take, if any, and which information is practical and useful. Fiduciaries think about this every day. Here’s a checklist…

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Ten Tips for College 2019

Guest Post This week’s post is guest authored by Dana, an engineer and former US Army Officer, and a close friend of Osbon Capital Management. My spouse and I applied to college in pre-internet days. We now realize how much times have changed! With our oldest child a high school senior this year, and with two others on deck, we…

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