Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Week 5: Big Tech, Inflation & Housing
Briefing: Most of the big tech names surpassed earnings expectations. That’s good news, but it doesn’t mean we’re out of the clear on the Fed-induced bear market. | Lumber went through another price shock and is falling rapidly. We will likely see more of these rolling price shocks as the world continues to adjust. | Innovation keeps marching forward. Big Tech…
Week 4: Rates, Innovation & Stablecoins
Briefing: The Fed continues with its plan to raise rates and end asset purchases. | Innovation and growth trends will continue. | Stablecoins have marched on unfazed by Fed actions. Rates: At the top of everyone’s mind For broader context, the Fed Funds rate has been in a persistent downward trend since the 1980s, and it finally hit 0% following…
Week 3: Tech Empire Building, Auto Challenges and Bill Miller on Bitcoin
Briefing: Markets are negatively surprised by faster than expected Fed tightening and a worse than predicted Omicron variant. | Meta and Microsoft are aggressively investing in their future vision of the metaverse. | Cars are turning into highly complicated rolling computers facing many production challenges. Tesla and the semiconductor industry as a whole are in a position of strength. |…
Week 2: Large But Not In Charge, Socially Aware Investing and AP Photography NFTs
Briefing: The S&P 500 does not allow unprofitable companies into the index, so we took a look at the current list of the top ten unprofitable US companies. Six of those companies are in the Nasdaq Index. | A recent survey related to corporate leadership showed that the general American public wants better quality jobs and better wages. | Associated…
Week 1: Byron Wien’s Predictions and The Great Robotics Rollout
Happy New Year and Welcome to Week 1 of 2022! Briefing: Byron Wien released his annual markets surprise list highlighting global energy challenges as a recurring theme. | We have seen the first proofs of concept of a diverse set of robotic workers ready for everything from grills to warehouses. | The Oculus headset outsold the Xbox for the first…
Week 51: Inspiring Workers, Giving and Gratitude
Inspiring workers: wages and labor participation There’s a lingering question in the US around unemployment, and many wonder how long we can have both a shortage of workers and a relatively high unemployment rate. In the US, we peaked at 158.7mm workers in February 2020, just before the onset of COVID. Today we are back to the 155.1mm US worker…
Week 50: Terra Luna, Stablecoins and Quad Witching
Briefing: The Quad Witching is tomorrow, Friday the 17th, and it typically brings volatility in the weeks leading up. It’s a reminder of the massive derivatives market and its effect on market prices. | Stablecoins received a shout-out at the Federal Reserve Press Conference. | The most interesting emerging stablecoin is $UST powered by Terra Luna out of South Korea….
Week 49: The Infinite Machine, A Different Look at NFTs and Market Selloffs
Briefing: The Infinite Machine about the creation of Ethereum is a must-read. | NFT is an overused term, so we’re writing about it this week to add clarity to the underlying principles that make this technology valuable. | Market selloffs happen regularly. As long as underlying fundamentals haven’t changed, it’s usually a buying opportunity. The Infinite Machine I recommend a…
Week 48: Constitution Update, Don’t Fight The Fed, Metaverse Growth
Briefing: The ConstitutionDAO did not win the Sotheby’s US Constitution bid, but found a way to win anyway. | Don’t fight the Fed is an investment heuristic worth listening to. | The Metaverse continues on its growth trajectory. ConstitutionDAO Update Since week 46, you probably saw the result that ConstitutionDao did not win their bid to buy a physical copy…
