Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Financial Repair Continues

Our two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been in the news this month with positive comments. Their stocks and other securities have responded with a sharp jump, indicating hope that we will return to a healthy mortgage market and get the government largely out of the mortgage business. The securities are officially worthless but speculators are betting…

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100-Year Bonds for the United States

The US Treasury has been considering issuing 100-year bonds for some time. Based on recent comments by the US Treasury Secretary this may actually happen this year. These are unusual monetary times that allow the government to lower its financing costs. But what are the implications for US individual investors? Do bonds due in 2120 make sense for you? Current…

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The Almighty Dollar

Heading into the final third of the investment year there are few sure things for investors to count on. One sure thing, however, is the US dollar. It has been appreciating slightly for years, and has been strong even though the US economy would be doing better with a slightly weaker dollar. Why do we believe dollar strength will persist?…

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Stocks Are Alive and Kicking

Forty years ago a Business Week cover story announced the “Death of Equities.” The Dow was at 867. In the years since, as the Dow has risen 30x, we’ve seen other forecasts for the tragic demise of stocks, all wrong. In 1979, the doomsayers pointed to inflation and high taxes as the forces that would kill stocks. Healthy skepticism is…

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Our Favorite Theories, Principles and Laws Named After Famous Thinkers

This week we decided to have some fun by exploring our favorite eponymous laws, theories and principles and how they fit into the world of investing. This is a list I’ve been wanting to write for a while, at least since I discovered Sayre’s law two years ago. The fantastic thing about these observed laws is that they are based…

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Look at What They Do, Not What They Say

One piece of good news got buried in last week’s falling stock prices and the rush to safety in the bond market. This Bloomberg headline from last Friday says it best: Trump Has Signed Budget and Debt-Limit Legislation. Why is this such good news and what impact does it have on your financial and investment life? Aside from the messy…

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Steps To Prepare The Next Generation For Wealth

Wealthy families often find themselves debating how to best approach the subject of family wealth with their children. The hesitation tends to center around how to share information about wealth while maintaining motivation and instilling the values of hard work and responsibility. What’s the right age? What’s the right level of detail? Where should you start? Here are steps you…

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A History Lesson from Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio published his “Paradigm Shifts” on July 17. I recommend it for any investor who wants an intelligent, dispassionate history of investing broken down by decade. Ray Dalio and Bridgewater, the hedge fund he founded, have the money and the track record to back up his assertions. Is another paradigm shift happening now? What does Ray Dalio have to…

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Too Concentrated in One Stock?

***We took this article off of the public site because it discusses a partnership structure. It’s a valuable topic, however, the partnership this article alludes to is not allowed to advertise. Their legal team asked us to take it down for their own compliance purposes.*** Please contact us directly if you have any questions. – Osbon Capital Management  

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