Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
More Spending, No Recession
Investors are always on the lookout for the next recession, because a recession can slow down or reverse portfolio appreciation for a year or two. Moreover, a recession reveals a lot of investment mistakes which no one likes to be reminded of. Here are three measures to look at when trying to determine if a recession is coming and if…
Stalemate Investing, Positively
Most years start the same way. Investors look closely at the price action during the first day, week or month of the new year. No matter which way investments go, price action in the first month is a poor indicator of future returns. Then there are politics, threats of violence around the world, and earnings reports to consider. Declaring an…
A Fantastic Investment Story
Red Notice is the incredible story of Bill Browder’s bold journey from young American investor to the largest foreign investor in Russia. This success made him a personal enemy of Russia’s most dangerous oligarchs and public officials. The details are unbelievable and the lessons valuable. The first half of the book focuses on how Bill’s intuition and curiosity led him…
Get State Owned Enterprises Out of Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are an important asset class that include major countries with massive populations like China and India. Emerging market investments have been accessible for decades, but they’ve often included state-owned enterprise (SOE) holdings — whether you’ve wanted them or not. Maybe you didn’t. State Owned Enterprises are notoriously inefficient, often conflicted and sometimes even overtly corrupt. It’s possible to…
Individual Securities Vs. Indexes: Investing’s biggest competition
Nothing is more central to our economy than competition. Competition rewards innovation, smart investments and cost control. We see competition between local restaurants and between global giants like Amazon and FedEx. We also see — and benefit from — competition between divergent ideas and business methods. In the investment world, the competition between stock pickers and indexers has been raging…
The Simple Power of a Favor
Favors are magic. They solve problems and open doors. They demonstrate loyalty and interest. They strengthen relationships. Simple favors can mean so much for the receiver, but they can also pay huge dividends for the sender. Earlier this year a friend of mine, Alyssa O’Toole, a local entrepreneur who runs Musicians Playground, asked me to take a look into her…
Small Stocks for Big Gains
As we enter the final month of the final year of the decade, investors face the eternal question: how much should I have in stocks at this point? As a start on that answer, we must acknowledge that thinking about stocks as one asset class really is an oversimplification. I suggest we look first at a subset of the stock…
The Big Debt Crisis Article
Without debt, the majority of people would never be able to own a home. Companies would struggle to build data centers and manufacturing plants. Governments wouldn’t be able to build subway systems, hospitals or highways. No debt means no growth. Still, there are limits. Too much debt, poorly managed, leads to disasters. With this in mind, Ray Dalio and his firm…
Thank You & Gratitude
In an age of abundance, the communal practice of giving thanks is something to be grateful for in and of itself. Taking the time to give thanks is an opportunity for a perspective reset. It allows us to step beyond whatever challenge-du-jour we have faced and step into a place of empathy and connection. Often caught up in our efforts…
