Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Small Stocks for Big Gains
As we enter the final month of the final year of the decade, investors face the eternal question: how much should I have in stocks at this point? As a start on that answer, we must acknowledge that thinking about stocks as one asset class really is an oversimplification. I suggest we look first at a subset of the stock…
The Big Debt Crisis Article
Without debt, the majority of people would never be able to own a home. Companies would struggle to build data centers and manufacturing plants. Governments wouldn’t be able to build subway systems, hospitals or highways. No debt means no growth. Still, there are limits. Too much debt, poorly managed, leads to disasters. With this in mind, Ray Dalio and his firm…
Thank You & Gratitude
In an age of abundance, the communal practice of giving thanks is something to be grateful for in and of itself. Taking the time to give thanks is an opportunity for a perspective reset. It allows us to step beyond whatever challenge-du-jour we have faced and step into a place of empathy and connection. Often caught up in our efforts…
Demographics Are Fundamental To Investing
Andy Kessler wrote a great WSJ article on Monday about China and demographics, called “Old Age Will Put China To Rest”. It made me remember how excited we were at Morgan Stanley 35 years ago when we started to collect demographic data outside the United States. Today, in 2019, our access to demographic data has grown exponentially. It’s important we…
Atomic Habits for Investors
I read James Clear’s Atomic Habits last week. It got me thinking about how our performance as investors can be greatly affected by our habits — both our ability to adopt (and sustain) good ones and to break bad ones. Clear’s premise is very compelling; he suggests when we can get down to the atomic level in our thoughts and…
When You Are Acquired: The Three R’s To Consider
More than 200 Massachusetts companies have been acquired so far this year. Almost all were privately held. When you are acquired, it’s not just a life-changing liquidity event, it’s validation of your business model and a hard-earned reward for your ideas and long hours. In the big deal, you’ll receive cash, stock and/or incentives to continue working. Then what? Based…
The Go-To-Market Economy
What exactly is a go-to-market (GTM) company? A GTM company is intensely focused on creating new and innovative strategies to attract new customers. Rather than building new technology or new service models these companies don’t have to have the latest and greatest offering to attract new business. In order to be viable, they have to have a reasonable path to…
Considerations Before Every Buy and Sell Decision
It is easier to make money decisions when you depersonalize them. Think of your investments as a business with very clear profit and loss metrics. Practice the dispassionate discipline of looking at all stakeholders and considering all goals, timelines and risks. Now that it’s late October and just a few months before the close of the calendar year, let’s take…
Consensus Is Rare
It’s difficult to get a broad idea across in one headline. When it is done in the investment media, the bias almost always skews negative, mostly for dramatic effect. If all indicators were bad, everyone would want to sell and there would be no buyers. With positive consensus, on the other hand, there would be no sellers. A broad and…
