Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Warren Buffett’s Insight Never Gets Old

On Saturday, Berkshire Hathaway released its annual shareholder letter. For investment professionals and BRK aficionados, it’s something to look forward to every year as must-read. The beauty of the letter, penned by Warren Buffett, is how well his comments about Berkshire, one of the world’s most valuable companies, apply to individual investors. Here’s what we learned this year from the 54th annual letter:

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A Look At Business Cycle Confidence

The business cycle has gone onward and upward for ten years. That has meant positive returns for investors in equities, debt and real estate alike. The question of when it ends seems to be a perennial question. It’s a question that we hear often from clients, prospects, friends and family. Headlines can be particularly unhelpful as their news model is often reliant on triggering emotional reactions for clicks. To us, it doesn’t look like the cycle ends anytime soon. Here is why:

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How To Know A Client

We often start new client conversations by asking a simple and direct question, “What does the ideal investment relationship look like to you?” No two answers have been the same. Whether the individual is most interested in sharing ideas, taxes, trusts and estate, investing or something else, a good advisor actively works to know and understand their client. Here’s what that looks like.

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A Late Stage Market Melt-UP

Without doubt the investment year is off to a great start. The stock market in the US is up 8%. January’s return is the best one since 1987. The way things are going we could see a repeat of 2013, one of the best diversified return years ever. What is going right and what could go wrong? Why January is…

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House, Home or Investment?

We have made comments before about investing in real estate. This week our entire article is devoted to investment real estate. The goal of allocating money to real estate is largely the same as putting money into stocks. The investor wants growth and income. The similarities end there.

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Family Offices: A More Personal and Private Approach

Why are more wealthy families turning to family offices for investment management and wealth planning? At the top of the list are privacy, dedicated expertise and aligned incentives. A recent profile by The Economist on the family office landscape reveals interesting insights about how these offices are run, how they invest and why they appeal to more investors today. Here’s how you can follow along with the best of the industry:

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Information Shutdown

The government shutdown is now entering its fourth week, cutting off a large source of useful information for investors. How are investors supposed to keep track of what is going on financially and economically without government statistics? It’s our job to work around difficult situations. Here is what we, and investors, can count on during an information drought.

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Three Ways To Get the Family Involved in 2019

The power and beauty of true family wealth is that it has the power to make a difference generation after generation. Therein also lies the challenge. Passing on the knowledge and values younger generations need to put wealth to work in a sustainable way for the family and for others is a specific area of education not taught in school. What will they need to know? Where should you start? How much information is too much? To get you started, here are three ideas inspired by one of the world’s leading experts on true family wealth.

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Why Volatility Is Here To Stay

Eight hundred point swings in the Dow have been alarmingly regular events in the last month. Swings that large represent a 3% change in the 30 most important stocks in the United States — in one day. And it’s not just the Dow. Similar moves have been hitting the S&P 500 and stock markets outside the US. Even the benchmark 10 year US Treasury bond has been flip flopping with large price changes. Is this the new and harmless normal or a brightly flashing warning sign? Let’s start the year with a closer look at these dramatic ups and downs.  

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