Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Stocks Are Alive and Kicking
Forty years ago a Business Week cover story announced the “Death of Equities.” The Dow was at 867. In the years since, as the Dow has risen 30x, we’ve seen other forecasts for the tragic demise of stocks, all wrong. In 1979, the doomsayers pointed to inflation and high taxes as the forces that would kill stocks. Healthy skepticism is…
Our Favorite Theories, Principles and Laws Named After Famous Thinkers
This week we decided to have some fun by exploring our favorite eponymous laws, theories and principles and how they fit into the world of investing. This is a list I’ve been wanting to write for a while, at least since I discovered Sayre’s law two years ago. The fantastic thing about these observed laws is that they are based…
Look at What They Do, Not What They Say
One piece of good news got buried in last week’s falling stock prices and the rush to safety in the bond market. This Bloomberg headline from last Friday says it best: Trump Has Signed Budget and Debt-Limit Legislation. Why is this such good news and what impact does it have on your financial and investment life? Aside from the messy…
Steps To Prepare The Next Generation For Wealth
Wealthy families often find themselves debating how to best approach the subject of family wealth with their children. The hesitation tends to center around how to share information about wealth while maintaining motivation and instilling the values of hard work and responsibility. What’s the right age? What’s the right level of detail? Where should you start? Here are steps you…
A History Lesson from Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio published his “Paradigm Shifts” on July 17. I recommend it for any investor who wants an intelligent, dispassionate history of investing broken down by decade. Ray Dalio and Bridgewater, the hedge fund he founded, have the money and the track record to back up his assertions. Is another paradigm shift happening now? What does Ray Dalio have to…
Too Concentrated in One Stock?
***We took this article off of the public site because it discusses a partnership structure. It’s a valuable topic, however, the partnership this article alludes to is not allowed to advertise. Their legal team asked us to take it down for their own compliance purposes.*** Please contact us directly if you have any questions. – Osbon Capital Management
The Just-In-Time Economy
In recent weeks we’ve been writing about productivity and what it means for the economy and market performance. One key ingredient in productivity for many firms is the just-in-time production model. Some forward-thinking people believe that just-in-time businesses will smooth out or even eventually eliminate recessions. They have a good point. Just in time – the practice of optimally delivering…
Productivity Part Two
Last week Max Osbon wrote about the coming productivity surge. This week I am going to write about how good our current productivity is and the key productivity dates coming this Summer. Three days in July might reveal how productivity and the US economy are doing much better than the conventional wisdom believes. At Osbon Capital we are looking at…
The Hidden Productivity Boom
GDP growth is the clearest sign of a healthy economy, however it is difficult to grow GDP without population growth and productivity gains. With improving productivity, more people can do more things in less time and for less money. There are two kinds of productivity: labor and multi-factor. We need both kinds to grow. Both are thought to be at…
