Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.


Sponsor Team Osbon

In about four months my son Max and I will proudly take the field at Columbia University’s Wien Stadium for The RBC Decathlon where we’ll give it our all for the benefit of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. We’re excited for the event and ramping up our training. But we need your help. Since you won’t be able to help us…

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The risk of being human

Last week we discussed different aspects of risk and how to measure it. I’d like to follow up with a short note about a primary source of risk. I’m sorry to say it’s looking you in the mirror. Human nature can be costly More and more peer-reviewed research is piling up that confirms an unhappy truth – individual investors are…

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A Fresh Look at Risk

Investing is risky. That’s no secret. But I find that many investors get fixated on the elements of risk that matter least and ignore the risks that matter most. When I meet with new clients I try to focus the discussion on the real and personal side of risk, not on textbook definitions. The best measure: Shortfall risk We define…

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Set it and forget it?

Finally, investing is fun again. The stock market is up more than 100 percent over the last four years. Bonds continue their 30-year record of positive returns. Gold’s been on a long winning streak and real estate is back on the rise. As the good times just keep rolling along, is it time to “set it and forget it” with…

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Small changes, big impact

Does one percent matter?  If you’re watching the balance in your portfolio for one year, the difference between an eight percent return and a seven percent return can be a fair amount of money, but won’t really change your life. But maintain that difference for a generation and the impact will really get your attention. Let’s let the numbers speak…

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Why do asset allocations change?

Good question, and one asked recently by a potential client.  When should asset allocations change in a portfolio?  The when, why and how of allocation changes should be as transparent as indexing itself, and it is. When life changes Although it can be tempting to tinker with asset allocations to try to outsmart the markets, there are really only two…

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Year 5: Buffett leads in wager against hedge funds

Five years ago Warren Buffett made a big bet, not to enrich himself, but to prove a point. He wagered that an unmanaged S&P 500 index fund would outperform hedge funds handpicked by the Wall Street firm Protége Partners. We’re now at the halfway point in the 10-year bet and Buffett is in the lead. The score at halftime: Buffett…

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Team Osbon prepares for The RBC Decathlon

Family, philanthropy, and fitness are all great passions for me.  So when registration opened for a fantastic event that combines all three, I was at the front of the sign-up line.  On July 28 this summer, my son Max and I will throw ourselves into The RBC Decathlon, where we’ll compete in ten athletic events while raising money for the…

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2012: Despite the headlines, a strong year

Fiscal cliff, high unemployment, euro crisis, stalled economy, divisive election, Congressional gridlock, US debt downgrade, nuclear threat. If you watched the news in 2012, you’d be convinced it was a dismal year for the markets. But it wasn’t. Quite the contrary.  The investment performance numbers are in for 2012, and they tell a far better story than you might think….

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