Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
The Perils of Pessimism
In 2010 I got two client inquiries to create an “Armageddon Portfolio,” a collection of assets that would hold its value come hell or high water. Recall that we had just pulled out of the financial crisis. Many expected a repeat. For some, pessimism was so high in 2010 there was no expectation for an increase in asset value; just maintaining value was plenty. What happened next?
6 Features I’d Add To The Financial Industry
In 2013 Google’s New York office ran an experiment that replaced the normal glass M&M containers with opaque containers labeled “M&Ms.” Within seven weeks the 2,000 person office’s consumption of M&M’s had dropped by over 3.1 million calories. Without changing our willpower or discipline, we can control our healthy habits with simple changes to our environment. We should be able to do the same with our financial health by making small tweaks to our financial environment. Here are six M&M/Google inspired features I would add to our financial lives:
Local Companies Hitting Home Runs as Fast as Red Sox
Three local companies were in the national news last week. They are great examples of how local innovators create jobs, opportunity and wealth. By applying new ideas in mature industries, they created two billionaires, revived an old retailer, and established a brand new billion dollar company. I am talking about Wayfair, BJ’s and PillPack.
Four Points To Consider When Holding Debt
Owing money makes many people queasy, even if their assets far exceed their debts. Holding zero debt eliminates that unease and fosters a sense of robust financial safety. There’s nothing wrong with that approach if it helps you sleep at night. However, businesses use debt as leverage to increase their enterprise value faster than they could or would otherwise. Investors can use debt in the same way. Here are four points to consider when considering when and how to use debt.
Raise Your Expectations Again
Five years ago I wrote, “Raise Your Expectations.” This week I am again urging investors to look at their after-tax investment returns. This is not the number your advisor or fund company may want you to focus on, but it’s really the only one that matters. Because it’s so important to your investment results, let’s revisit the after-tax topic and see why it’s still a problem the financial services industry tends to sweep under the rug.
Inflation Today. Is it CPI or MyPI?
It’s easy to think of inflation as financial weather – something we must endure and can’t control. While it’s true we can’t individually control the prices that grocers, automakers and landlords charge, we can, and should, control what we spend. We’re all familiar with the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. It tracks the cost of groceries, rent, utilities and other goods and services most of us use. When the cost of men’s sweaters go up, so does the index.
Five Reasons Investing Gets Harder as You Get Wealthier
It’s a paradox of wealth. As your net worth grows and you start thinking investing will finally get easier, you may find the opposite is true. It turns out that choosing the right investments and financial advisors can become more difficult, or at least more confusing, as you amass assets. Here are five reasons why. 1. Instant popularity. With increased…
Trust and Estate Strategies
However unpleasant or dull the idea might seem, the trust and estate planning process is the true backbone of your family’s wealth. What happens after you’re no longer around to make family wealth decisions will either be based on your clearly documented instructions or the decisions of a judge. Shouldn’t you be the one to decide what happens? Here are…
What If Amazon Enters The Asset Management Business This Year
Amazon’s entry is not a joke and it could happen soon according to a Vanguard executive who was in town last week for the Vanguard investment confab. Not only that, a number of prominent retailers could launch wealth management offerings as financial advice is commoditized and scaled even further to reach the smallest investor. Costco and Walmart come to mind. The executive acknowledged that Vanguard is actively planning to compete with technology-driven companies that have never been in wealth management. They take the threat seriously.
