Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.


Week 50: Terra Luna, Stablecoins and Quad Witching

Briefing: The Quad Witching is tomorrow, Friday the 17th, and it typically brings volatility in the weeks leading up. It’s a reminder of the massive derivatives market and its effect on market prices. | Stablecoins received a shout-out at the Federal Reserve Press Conference. | The most interesting emerging stablecoin is $UST powered by Terra Luna out of South Korea….

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Week 49: The Infinite Machine, A Different Look at NFTs and Market Selloffs

Briefing: The Infinite Machine about the creation of Ethereum is a must-read. | NFT is an overused term, so we’re writing about it this week to add clarity to the underlying principles that make this technology valuable. | Market selloffs happen regularly. As long as underlying fundamentals haven’t changed, it’s usually a buying opportunity. The Infinite Machine I recommend a…

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Week 48: Constitution Update, Don’t Fight The Fed, Metaverse Growth

Briefing: The ConstitutionDAO did not win the Sotheby’s US Constitution bid, but found a way to win anyway. | Don’t fight the Fed is an investment heuristic worth listening to. | The Metaverse continues on its growth trajectory. ConstitutionDAO Update Since week 46, you probably saw the result that ConstitutionDao did not win their bid to buy a physical copy…

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Week 46: The US Constitution, Tracking Web3.0 Hacks, and so on.

Briefing: A discord channel raised $30m+ in four days to buy the only privately held copy of the US Constitution from Sotheby’s, foreshadowing a world where DAOs with passionate leadership gain significant power. Tracking frauds, failures and security breaches in Web3.0. The largest hack to date was returned by the hacker. Don’t get carried away with parabolic commodity prices. They…

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Week 45: Web3.0 Evolutions

We’re covering Web3.0 this week because the space is evolving rapidly and we want to mark the progress and evolution for our readers. This article covers some of the most notable and relevant updates that we think everyone will find valuable as we look into the future of Web3.0. Skepticism is an expensive habit It feels smart to look at…

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Week 44: Market Caps, Interoperability, Semiconductors & Squid Games

Briefing: The market capitalization of an investment is dependent on the distribution of ownership and liquidity. Squid Game’s popularity is so powerful it spawned a new currency… that promptly went to zero. Interoperability refers to compatibility between software systems and data sets. It’s an essential component of the future of our interconnected digital world. ASML semiconductor manufacturer is likely the…

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Week 43: Why Memes Matter, Brain-Computer Interface, and Driverless Progress

Briefing: Brands with large online communities that create memes have an advantage. Intangible brand value is often an unappreciated component of equity valuation. Brain-Computer Interfaces have attracted considerable VC funding since Elon Musk started Neuralink and progress is happening quickly. Amsterdam unveiled self-driving boats for its canals. The IAC, Indy Autonomous Challenge happened over this past weekend, with the winner…

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Week 42: Bitcoin Futures ETF, Buy-Now-Pay-Later, Robotics Incentives

Briefing: This week’s new Bitcoin ETF invests in futures rather than actual Bitcoin. It’s an important distinction that we don’t think most people are aware of the difference. Software-based lending solutions are a natural and welcome evolution. The new leaders are early and will be dramatically better than their traditional counterparts. Increasing employment costs will lead to increasing automation. The…

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Crypto Investing Announcement

Based on the continued opportunity we see within crypto assets and blockchain technologies, we are launching a crypto focused investment vehicle available to our clients. In November of 2020 we wrote a post about the updated role of bitcoin and accurately predicted the most recent bull run based on increasing adoption rates and two fundamental principles of influence: authority and social proof. We published…

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