Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Week 12: Real Estate Woes, Uptrends and Building Faster
Briefing: Investors are buying too many houses while active listings are at record lows. | After a long sell-off markets are likely back in an upward trend. | 50 years ago we were much faster at building physical infrastructure. Real Estate Woes A current story familiar to everyone is the difficulty of purchasing a home in 2022. The numbers behind…
Week 11: Buy Strike, Automation and Cybersecurity, Nuclear Shipping Containers
Briefing: The Fed hiked rates by .25% yesterday for the first hike since 2018. | Despite volatile price swings, we’re still very much in an innovation boom. | In a big step forward for clean energy, Radiant has secured financing to create portable nuclear fission reactors. The Fed Makes Its First Move Yesterday, the Fed meeting resulted in a .25% hike…
Week 10: Russia, Patience and The Future
Briefing: Managing risk for Russia & Ukraine | Patience pays when waiting for bear markets to end. | David Friedberg’s new product Cana has the potential to turn the beverage industry into a decentralized platform business. Russia & Ukraine Today marks two weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s been helpful to me to consider this under a framework…
Week 9: Past, Present, Future
Past, Present & Future First, we stand in solidarity with the citizens in Ukraine who are suffering tremendous hardships due to unfortunate geopolitical forces outside of their control. The past two years We wrote last week that easing COVID restrictions will help with inflationary pressures by reducing global supply chain complexity. Many mask mandates are ending next week, and companies…
Week 8: When Policies Act Like Taxes, Introducing AI, and NFTs
Briefing: Covid policies act as an additional tax on the global economy. Reducing restrictions should reduce the inflation print, which is vital to the Fed’s raising rates. | AI is now helping to advance Fusion energy development. | NFTs are polarizing. When policy acts as a tax I can’t remember a time in the last ten years when there wasn’t…
Week 7: Airbnb, Zombie Companies and Jamie Dimon
Briefing: Airbnb is an excellent example of a positive-sum business, one that has generated $150B in booking revenue for its hosts while unlocking previously unavailable real estate for travel. | Zombie Companies are companies that do not generate enough earnings to cover the cost of their debt, but that’s not the whole story as times have changed. | JPMorgan opened…
Week 6: Earnings Are Here and Crypto Updates
Briefing: Prices are down, but earnings are up. A strong showing in earnings season helps rebuild investor confidence in the face of Fed tightening. Since its inception in Nov 2021, our crypto fund has avoided 30%-40% drawdowns by waiting until this selloff ended to start allocating. | The Boston Fed has completed Phase 1 of its CBDC, Central Bank Digital…
Week 5: Big Tech, Inflation & Housing
Briefing: Most of the big tech names surpassed earnings expectations. That’s good news, but it doesn’t mean we’re out of the clear on the Fed-induced bear market. | Lumber went through another price shock and is falling rapidly. We will likely see more of these rolling price shocks as the world continues to adjust. | Innovation keeps marching forward. Big Tech…
Week 4: Rates, Innovation & Stablecoins
Briefing: The Fed continues with its plan to raise rates and end asset purchases. | Innovation and growth trends will continue. | Stablecoins have marched on unfazed by Fed actions. Rates: At the top of everyone’s mind For broader context, the Fed Funds rate has been in a persistent downward trend since the 1980s, and it finally hit 0% following…
