Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Breaking the Money Market Buck
When the Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Sheila Bair says money markets funds are “highly unstable in a crisis” it gets your attention. At the same May 5th meeting, former Fed chief Paul Volcker called for a “floating share price” for money market funds as the simplest solution. Is the longstanding one dollar per share value of money…
John Tierney and the end of tax-free bonds
Many Boston locals know John Tierney, our popular Democratic Congressman representing Massachusetts’s 6th District who was recently re-elected for the eighth time. Congressman Tierney is introducing a bill to make all municipal bonds taxable – proposing to demolish this last tax haven for the rich. This bill is no black swan, a highly unexpected, exceptional event that comes out of…
Like ducks in the desert
A steady current of surprise and unease has been running through the popular financial press and blogosphere during the long current bull run for US stocks. Many pundits seem confused and worried, like ducks in the desert, that something is seriously wrong. The S&P 500 is now up 100% since the bad old days two years ago. And the benchmark…
Are you overpaying?
The headline, “Fund industry overpaid by $1,300 billion” caught my eye in the Financial Times on April 3rd. Hmmm, somebody finally put a number on it. Here’s what FT reported based on a survey by the IBM Institute of Business Value regarding the fund management industry. Value destruction in 3 easy pieces The IBM survey of 2600 major users of…
Money is Money, No Matter the Source
Over your lifetime, you may receive or accumulate securities through gift, inheritance, sale of a business, stock option plans, 401(k) plans, or other sources. How you came into possession of the assets can easily influence investment decisions. For instance, it may seem like treason to sell any of the stock that your father accumulated in his employer’s company before his…
Do you own the next BP?
April 22nd is the first year anniversary of the largest offshore oil spill in United States history. The tragic 2010 explosion of BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico taught difficult lessons about drilling risks, industry regulation, and environmental protection. The spill was also a stark reminder for investors about the dangers of owning the wrong stock at…
Boo! Is Your Portfolio Fear-Proof?
There’s no question that fear moves markets. The devastation in Japan scared many investors not only out of Japanese companies and funds, but also out of the nuclear power industry, insurers, companies with import/export ties to the island nation, and even equity markets on the other side of the planet. Investors don’t like uncertainty and shocks like Japan can trigger…
When the Music Stops
Markets hum along to their own beat and rhythm, until they don’t. From time to time, the music suddenly stops. It might be Libya, devastation in Japan, or potential bankruptcy in Greece that triggers a sudden silence and jarring price dislocations. We typically get no advance warning at all. This time, however, we know when a big one is coming –…
Self-dentistry is a bad idea
An entrepreneur who creates, manages, and grows a company should be able to do the same with an investment portfolio, no? After all, success is transferable, isn’t it? The very qualities that make a great entrepreneur should also make for a great money manager. Right? I don’t think so, and here’s why.
