Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Faith-based investing part two: The Dollar
Last week I talked about faith-based investing as represented by the $9 trillion US Treasury securities market, and the promise to repay backed by the “full faith and credit” of the United States government. This week I would like to note the 40th birthday of a faith-based investment that dwarfs the Treasury market in size: the dollar.
Faith-based investing, as in “full faith and credit”
I can hardly wait for Wednesday morning, August 3rd. By that date at the latest we will know what Congress has decided to do about raising the United States debt limit. The “full faith and credit” of the United States and its AAA rating are at stake. We are all waiting to know what will Congress do and how. Will…
$150 Oil. It could be worse.
A lengthy Barron’s article by Gene Epstein over the weekend calls for $150/barrel oil in the next 12 months. As one of the 8 most important prices in the world, the tab for oil can have a profound impact on business performance, economic growth, and the risk and return of investment portfolios. So what happens if the Barron’s prediction is…
Greek drama is based on previous plays
Modern Western theatre as we know it is said to have originated 2600 years ago in Athens, with Thespis as the first winner of a theatrical contest. The world could use an orator like him now to explain to the unhappy masses what an awful economic mess they are in. How will they get out? We have four examples to…
Festival of Black Swans
Last week, Bloomberg LP convened its first Money Managers Conference in Boston to explore the topic: Preparing for the Next Black Swans. The conference brought together 25 professional money managers before an audience of investment professionals and journalists (and a live stream to 300,000 terminals) to consider “strategies should the unthinkable happen.” Last week I wrote about my own panel…
John Osbon to speak at The Bloomberg Money Manager Conference
John Osbon of Osbon Capital will be a panelist at The Bloomberg Money Managers Conference in Boston on June 14. The conference, titled “Preparing for the Next Black Swans,” focuses on the impact of major unexpected events that can send markets reeling. The conference brings together top money managers for a candid exchange of ideas on future Black Swans. What’s…
Five reasons why investing gets harder as you get wealthier
It’s a paradox of wealth. As your net worth grows and you start thinking investing will finally get easier, you may find the opposite is true. It turns out that choosing the right investments and financial advisors can become more difficult, or at least more confusing, as you amass assets. Here are five reasons why.
Buffett bets on an index – third year update
If you enjoy the speed and excitement of slot machines or blackjack, this is not the wager for you: Warren Buffett bet that the unmanaged S&P 500 would beat actively managed hedge funds over a ten year period. The bet launched at the beginning of 2008, and we now have updated results for the first three years.
Inflation and the Billion Prices Project
Inflation really isn’t much of a factor these days, unless you drive a car, eat food, buy health insurance, fly for business, or send your kids to college. According to the Fed in late April, “indicators are subdued and somewhat below the levels” of the Fed’s price stability mandate. Current indicators may seem subdued to Mr. Bernanke, but even modest…
