Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Why do asset allocations change?
Good question, and one asked recently by a potential client. When should asset allocations change in a portfolio? The when, why and how of allocation changes should be as transparent as indexing itself, and it is. When life changes Although it can be tempting to tinker with asset allocations to try to outsmart the markets, there are really only two…
Year 5: Buffett leads in wager against hedge funds
Five years ago Warren Buffett made a big bet, not to enrich himself, but to prove a point. He wagered that an unmanaged S&P 500 index fund would outperform hedge funds handpicked by the Wall Street firm Protége Partners. We’re now at the halfway point in the 10-year bet and Buffett is in the lead. The score at halftime: Buffett…
Team Osbon prepares for The RBC Decathlon
Family, philanthropy, and fitness are all great passions for me. So when registration opened for a fantastic event that combines all three, I was at the front of the sign-up line. On July 28 this summer, my son Max and I will throw ourselves into The RBC Decathlon, where we’ll compete in ten athletic events while raising money for the…
2012: Despite the headlines, a strong year
Fiscal cliff, high unemployment, euro crisis, stalled economy, divisive election, Congressional gridlock, US debt downgrade, nuclear threat. If you watched the news in 2012, you’d be convinced it was a dismal year for the markets. But it wasn’t. Quite the contrary. The investment performance numbers are in for 2012, and they tell a far better story than you might think….
Fidelity joins index club?
What’s this? Fidelity, one the largest active investment management companies has index investments? It sure does. Fidelity’s Spartan 500 Index fund, with $48 billion in assets under management, is the flagship in the Spartan family of 14 index mutual funds. What’s going on? Is Fidelity going passive? The fund war – fight or join Fidelity, which built its business on stock-picking for…
Lifetime employment
Some people want to work forever. I’m one of them. In investment management, a field where jumping from firm to firm in search of higher compensation is the accepted norm, lifetime employment is the rare exception. With all my job changes behind me, I intend to spend the rest of my career working hard at Osbon Capital. I think that’s…
Let’s do something. Now.
We all feel grief and despair and perhaps helplessness in the wake the Newtown massacre last week. How can these mass slaughters happen, over and over again? How bad will the next one be? What can be done? Anything? For me, it’s finally time to start talking and start acting. Silence is not a solution I guess this one finally…
Finally a free lunch! Or maybe not.
When one basket of stocks pays a 2 percent dividend yield, and another, seemingly very similar one pays 6 percent, which one do you want to own? In today’s one percent bond yield world, it’s not a hypothetical question. Two popular ETFs, both comprised of some of the world’s best known companies, present this puzzle. Let’s sort it out.
Dividend cliff-jumping
At some point, the 15% tax rate on dividends will go up. Or will it? We don’t know for sure. But there are all sorts of dire predictions about the future of dividend yields and stock prices based on the higher dividend tax rate that will apply if we are swept off the fiscal cliff. Some are even suggesting selling…
