Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Your advisor is moving. Should you, too?

It could happen to you.  Or maybe it already has. Your advisor is moving to a different employer. Change happens. Frequently. Every year 12-13% of financial advisors change employers or their firms are sold or merged. That’s a lot of motion. If your advisor moves, should you follow? What do you need to know before you make that decision?

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Fee war in your favor

Three exchange traded fund (ETF) sponsors – State Street, Vanguard, and BlackRock – control more than 80% of the massive ETF market. Each can claim advantages.  State Street has the two biggest ETFs: SPY and GLD.  BlackRock was first to market, and has the largest market share.  Vanguard has the lowest costs. All three aspire to a larger market share,…

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Pursuing better

Now and then a great business emerges because it does something no one else can through a breakthrough technology or discovery. But far more often, success comes to those who simply “do things better.” This may mean improving the auto engine to get more miles to the gallon, or providing faster turnaround on dry cleaning, creating a tastier coffee grind,…

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The big picture, literally

When we ask what your portfolio looks like, we mean it literally. We find that a visual representation of a few critical metrics can tell us a lot about your portfolio and how it can be expected to perform.  Let’s take a look at a hypothetical portfolio, in pictures. We know that the risk and return of an investment portfolio…

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What Windham is doing

Windham Global Solutions, the portfolio and risk management experts, is an essential provider for Osbon Capital.  Windham held its second annual investment conference last week in downtown Boston.  What happens when you put savvy Windham people in a room for two days with several dozen clients?  Lots of interesting discussion and debate about how to translate financial theory into best practices.  And…

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How Massachusetts Invests

If you had $50 billion to invest, how would you do it? Let’s take a look at the investment strategy of the Massachusetts Pension Reserves Investment Management board (PRIM), which invests that sum for the benefit of state employees, teachers and retirees.  PRIM has done well.  How have they done it and what can we learn from their approach?

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Digging deeper into long-term returns

Last week we discovered that even in rising markets, up days barely outnumber down days (54 percent up, 46 percent down). This time let’s dig a little deeper in the numbers and see what we can learn about the pattern of equity returns and market volatility.

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Will the market go up or down tomorrow?

The answer is yes. It will go up or down, and tomorrow night we can tell you which. As of August 17, the Dow had risen 8 of the last 11 days. Both the Dow and S&P 500 were up 6 weeks in a row, and the NASDAQ 5 weeks in a row.  What do these trends mean for the…

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It’s okay to feel good

Here’s a headline you’re not ever likely to see: “Good news breaks out!” The media always prefers a crisis.  Nonetheless, behind the relentless drumbeat of negative news coverage (Europe! Deficits! Slowdown!), there is unmistakably good market news across the board so far in 2012.  Let’s look at a few facts.

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