Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Inflation Holdouts, Volatility, Relationship Driven Banking
Inflation Holdouts It’s great to see some of the major commodity prices fall back below their all-time highs. Lumber is now below its pre-Covid all-time high. That doesn’t mean Home Depot is going to give you a deal. Retailers are slow to pass on falling costs. Copper, wheat and corn remain elevated but not at all-time highs. Today’s big underlying…
Opportunity, Forward Looking, AI
Opportunities Increasing All eyes are on the Fed and inflation metrics as investors try to find a place where they can confidently store and invest capital. The next CPI (inflation) print is on June 10th, representing the month of May. Public markets price every weekday, so this level of patience and interim uncertainty is difficult for investors. The Fed says…
Complexity, Acquisitions, ESG
Complexity Markets of all kinds are feeling the rolling aftershocks of lockdowns, Covid variants, inflation, a hawkish Fed, and supply chain challenges. These complex dynamics create multiple cascading waves. Some waves end up canceling out, while others amplify our problems. While we wait for these aftershocks to roll through, market participants are attempting to toe the line between patience, fear…
Fed Actions and The Story of Luna
Fed Actions On Monday we sent a note to all clients regarding current markets. Markets in 2022 have fallen fast. If you’re feeling down about your portfolio, you’re not alone. The Venture Capital Index tracking the portfolios of leading VCs is down over 55% in the last six months. The most successful modern hedge fund, Tiger Global, has lost 2/3rds…
FTX x SALT and Crypto’s Infrastructure Age
A significant crypto conference, Crypto Bahamas, was hosted last week by SALT, the crypto exchange FTX and FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. The SALT investment conference is an influential annual event for the traditional finance industry. This joint conference marked a big step forward in the ongoing merger between crypto and conventional institutional finance. While crypto is roughly 13 years old,…
Week 16: Lithium, New Collar, Bubbles
Briefing: Lithium prices have spiked dramatically in the past year. | The presence of New Collar Workers is a positive sign that our work culture is adapting to allow for upward mobility. | Signs of bubbles in venture capital are also a sign that we are hard at work solving complex problems. Lithium Batteries The price of Lithium provides us…
Week 15: Better Than It Looks, New Crypto Projects
Briefing: Declinism is chic, but things are better than they look. | Hivemapper cameras allow drivers to earn Solana-based HONEY token in exchange for providing fresh maps of local streets. It’s Better Than It Looks John shared a great book with the team recently titled “It’s Better Than It Looks” by Gregg Easterbrook (2018). I wholeheartedly agree with Michael Sherman’s…
Week 14: AI Progress, Solar Innovation, Axie Crypto Hack
Briefing: OpenAI completed an impressive next step forward for AI with a tool that generates detailed complex images based on text-only prompts. | Stanford researchers were able to create a solar panel that generates power at night via geothermal effects. | Crypto-related financial crimes are easier for law enforcement to track. | The Fed reloading their tool kit can be…
Week 13: Narratives, Decentralized Telecom & Valuations
Briefing: Narratives drive markets. Sometimes the news is so persistently negative that people forget that good news is possible. | The decentralized telecom network Helium raised $200m after growing its network of active routers by 128% over the past six months. | Valuations in US equity markets are at, to slightly below, the 10-year average. Narratives Narratives have a big…
