Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Week 8: When Policies Act Like Taxes, Introducing AI, and NFTs

Briefing: Covid policies act as an additional tax on the global economy. Reducing restrictions should reduce the inflation print, which is vital to the Fed’s raising rates. | AI is now helping to advance Fusion energy development. | NFTs are polarizing. When policy acts as a tax I can’t remember a time in the last ten years when there wasn’t…

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Week 7: Airbnb, Zombie Companies and Jamie Dimon

Briefing: Airbnb is an excellent example of a positive-sum business, one that has generated $150B in booking revenue for its hosts while unlocking previously unavailable real estate for travel. | Zombie Companies are companies that do not generate enough earnings to cover the cost of their debt, but that’s not the whole story as times have changed. | JPMorgan opened…

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Week 6: Earnings Are Here and Crypto Updates

Briefing: Prices are down, but earnings are up. A strong showing in earnings season helps rebuild investor confidence in the face of Fed tightening. Since its inception in Nov 2021, our crypto fund has avoided 30%-40% drawdowns by waiting until this selloff ended to start allocating. | The Boston Fed has completed Phase 1 of its CBDC, Central Bank Digital…

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Week 5: Big Tech, Inflation & Housing

Briefing: Most of the big tech names surpassed earnings expectations. That’s good news, but it doesn’t mean we’re out of the clear on the Fed-induced bear market. | Lumber went through another price shock and is falling rapidly. We will likely see more of these rolling price shocks as the world continues to adjust. | Innovation keeps marching forward. Big Tech…

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Week 4: Rates, Innovation & Stablecoins

Briefing: The Fed continues with its plan to raise rates and end asset purchases. | Innovation and growth trends will continue. | Stablecoins have marched on unfazed by Fed actions. Rates: At the top of everyone’s mind For broader context, the Fed Funds rate has been in a persistent downward trend since the 1980s, and it finally hit 0% following…

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Week 3: Tech Empire Building, Auto Challenges and Bill Miller on Bitcoin

Briefing: Markets are negatively surprised by faster than expected Fed tightening and a worse than predicted Omicron variant. | Meta and Microsoft are aggressively investing in their future vision of the metaverse. | Cars are turning into highly complicated rolling computers facing many production challenges. Tesla and the semiconductor industry as a whole are in a position of strength. |…

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Week 2: Large But Not In Charge, Socially Aware Investing and AP Photography NFTs

Briefing: The S&P 500 does not allow unprofitable companies into the index, so we took a look at the current list of the top ten unprofitable US companies. Six of those companies are in the Nasdaq Index. | A recent survey related to corporate leadership showed that the general American public wants better quality jobs and better wages. | Associated…

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Week 1: Byron Wien’s Predictions and The Great Robotics Rollout

Happy New Year and Welcome to Week 1 of 2022! Briefing: Byron Wien released his annual markets surprise list highlighting global energy challenges as a recurring theme. | We have seen the first proofs of concept of a diverse set of robotic workers ready for everything from grills to warehouses. | The Oculus headset outsold the Xbox for the first…

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Week 51: Inspiring Workers, Giving and Gratitude

Inspiring workers: wages and labor participation There’s a lingering question in the US around unemployment, and many wonder how long we can have both a shortage of workers and a relatively high unemployment rate. In the US, we peaked at 158.7mm workers in February 2020, just before the onset of COVID. Today we are back to the 155.1mm US worker…

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