Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Week 41: Labor Challenges, Taiwan Is A Top Risk, Crypto Announcement

Briefing: Investors should be aware of the employment trends in leading technology companies. Fewer people building the world’s biggest companies is another key driver of the increasing wealth gap. Taiwan is the most important piece of the global semiconductor supply chain by a wide margin. The tense relationship between China and Taiwan is a real risk to watch. Osbon Capital…

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Week 40: Finviz Map, Pessimism Is Expensive, Supply & Demand of Stocks

Briefing: Based on its popularity, we are highlighting FinViz this week as a very useful tool for investor education. Skepticism is a really expensive habit and investors should do their best to avoid being skeptics of the space industry. Over the past 40 years, public companies purchased 8x more equity through M&A and buybacks than they have sold through IPOs…

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Week 39: A Platinum Coin, Winner Takes All & Crypto Volumes

Briefing: The Treasury may issue a single $1 Trillion platinum coin to avoid the debt ceiling political circus and government shutdown. “Google” is the most popular search term on the Bing search engine, highlighting the winner-take-all nature of scalable technology businesses. Crypto exchange Binance processes over $50B in crypto derivatives transactions per day and may raise new financing at a…

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Week 38: New Frontiers, Quad-Witching, Chinese Competition

Briefing: Quad-witching is impacting markets and Dec 17th is the next date to watch. Space and the Metaverse are the next frontiers for investors, creators, entrepreneurs and explorers. China will eventually need technology leadership, even if it doesn’t like its current cohort. Quad witching Financial markets are influenced by activity in the derivatives markets. Some active traders would go as…

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Week 37: Shifting Risk Curves, Teaching Robots, NBA Ownership Lesson

Briefing: The risk curve is shifting further out for investors. Bonds have become extremely unattractive, especially when compared to the historically risky asset classes. AI models are learning more complicated tricks. There’s a new robot training to paint our streets. The NBA is opening ownership to PE firms with significant limitations, highlighting the importance of the owner’s mindset. Shifting Risk…

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Week 36: Keeping Up With Change, Less Inflation, and More Crypto

Briefing: Despite constant headlines of inflation, college tuition costs have barely increased. University tuition inflation is at 40-year lows and trending downward. Ray Dalio’s Pure Alpha fund returned just 1.8% annually for the last 7 years. He’s largely missed the growth of emergent internet and technology trends. El Salvador is taking a bold step forward with Bitcoin by making it…

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Week 35: Global Shipping, Return to Work, And So On

Briefing: Global shipping issues are creating delays and pushing prices higher. This is a knock-on effect of the pandemic that will eventually return to normal. Augmented Reality innovation includes a new laser projector small enough to fit into a regular pair of glasses. Working from home… Global Shipping Bottlenecks As the Christmas shopping season approaches, you’ve probably seen warnings that…

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Week 34: Numbers Don’t Lie, You Now Own An NFT, Robots

Briefing: Vaclav Smil’s latest book, “Number Don’t Lie,” is a treasure trove of interesting data and stories. | Visa’s $150,000 Crypto-Punk NFT purchase this week is a sign of forward-thinking leadership. It also wasn’t really that costly for the $500B market cap company. | General-purpose robots may be here sooner than you think; Hyundai and Tesla are the first leaders…

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Week 33: SPAC Bubbles, The Metaverse, Lumber, Poly Network Hack, and so on.

Briefing: SPACs are allowed to publish future revenue projections when they go public, which is causing some problems. | The Metaverse can be used to train autonomous robots. | Lumber prices are back below pre-pandemic levels after jumping to extreme heights. | Blockchain technology may prove useful in preventing money laundering.

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