Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
NCAA brackets and the challenge of forecasting
The NCAA basketball pool is a blast every year. Your cleverly selected bracket plays out as a month-long clash between delight and despair as some of your teams heroically advance and others are squished like bugs. It’s college sports at its best. Predicting winners and losers is a great way to entertain yourself every March, but it’s no way to…
Passive power
People often refer to index-based investing as “passive” investing. Some view that label as a negative – as if that investment style is somehow weak, unsophisticated, or the refuge of the lazy. I disagree completely. And I’ll tell you why. Index based investing, using ETFs (exchange traded funds) to invest in diverse markets, earns its p-word moniker. Index ETFs simply…
Getting ahead by not falling behind
Over time unforeseen risks can and will accumulate in a portfolio. Interest rate risks, market risks, inflation risks, default risks, and the risk of improper diversification are examples of potential pitfalls that must be persistently monitored.
Play to win
Wouldn’t it be nice to be fairly sure you were going to win every time you went out on the tennis court or hockey rink? Based on recently released performance stats, I guess Vanguard must know that feeling. Its funds had a good year in 2012, which has been the pattern for quite some time now. They make it look…
Sponsor Team Osbon
In about four months my son Max and I will proudly take the field at Columbia University’s Wien Stadium for The RBC Decathlon where we’ll give it our all for the benefit of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. We’re excited for the event and ramping up our training. But we need your help. Since you won’t be able to help us…
The risk of being human
Last week we discussed different aspects of risk and how to measure it. I’d like to follow up with a short note about a primary source of risk. I’m sorry to say it’s looking you in the mirror. Human nature can be costly More and more peer-reviewed research is piling up that confirms an unhappy truth – individual investors are…
A Fresh Look at Risk
Investing is risky. That’s no secret. But I find that many investors get fixated on the elements of risk that matter least and ignore the risks that matter most. When I meet with new clients I try to focus the discussion on the real and personal side of risk, not on textbook definitions. The best measure: Shortfall risk We define…
Set it and forget it?
Finally, investing is fun again. The stock market is up more than 100 percent over the last four years. Bonds continue their 30-year record of positive returns. Gold’s been on a long winning streak and real estate is back on the rise. As the good times just keep rolling along, is it time to “set it and forget it” with…
Small changes, big impact
Does one percent matter? If you’re watching the balance in your portfolio for one year, the difference between an eight percent return and a seven percent return can be a fair amount of money, but won’t really change your life. But maintain that difference for a generation and the impact will really get your attention. Let’s let the numbers speak…
