Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.


“Why Don’t I Own (More) Apple?”

Pretty much everybody wants to own Apple (AAPL). And why not?  AAPL is up 55 times since its March 2003 low of $7 and has greater cash reserves than the US government. Plenty of investors are lamenting that they didn’t take a bite of Apple years ago. But here’s the good news. If you are an indexer, chances are you…

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A profoundly positive story for the American economy

Now there’s a headline you haven’t seen recently.  It comes courtesy of Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape and general partner of the venture capital firm, Andreessen-Horowitz.  What does Marc see that so many others don’t?  Find out in his very interesting article “Why Software is Eating the World.”

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Markets change. Goals remain.

At times during the last two weeks, it’s seemed that the investment world has been spinning on its head. It can make you feel like everything has changed. But has it? First of all, did your goals change in the last two weeks?  Possibly, but probably not. No matter what happens in the stock market day to day, most investors…

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Amid market panic, remember your time horizon

All eyes, some red with market fatigue, are on the Dow and other benchmarks. After 10 days of staggering declines, I imagine there are still many investors with their fingers poised on the panic button, ready at the next sign of trouble to get out of stocks. Many have left the party already. Nobody wants to own stocks right now.

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Dividends on dividends

Last week, some readers expressed surprise that stocks, as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, had outperformed gold over the last 40 years. In that timeframe gold is up 45x while the Dow rose from 888 to 12,600 – a 14x return.  Nice, but not the 53x we attributed to the Dow. What gives?

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Faith-based investing part two: The Dollar

Last week I talked about faith-based investing as represented by the $9 trillion US Treasury securities market, and the promise to repay backed by the “full faith and credit” of the United States government.  This week I would like to note the 40th birthday of a faith-based investment that dwarfs the Treasury market in size: the dollar.

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Faith-based investing, as in “full faith and credit”

I can hardly wait for Wednesday morning, August 3rd.  By that date at the latest we will know what Congress has decided to do about raising the United States debt limit. The “full faith and credit” of the United States and its AAA rating are at stake. We are all waiting to know what will Congress do and how. Will…

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$150 Oil. It could be worse.

A lengthy Barron’s article by Gene Epstein over the weekend calls for $150/barrel oil in the next 12 months.  As one of the 8 most important prices in the world, the tab for oil can have a profound impact on business performance, economic growth, and the risk and return of investment portfolios.   So what happens if the Barron’s prediction is…

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Greek drama is based on previous plays

Modern Western theatre as we know it is said to have originated 2600 years ago in Athens, with Thespis as the first winner of a theatrical contest.  The world could use an orator like him now to explain to the unhappy masses what an awful economic mess they are in.  How will they get out? We have four examples to…

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