Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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FDA Approved AI & Inflation

AI Health Care In April, we wrote about evidence that AI was having a positive impact on overall productivity. Intuitively, it makes sense that AI would enhance productivity, but in practice, it’s difficult to quantify results. I recently connected with Michael Abramoff of Digital Diagnostics to discuss this topic. His product, LumineticsCore, was the first FDA-approved AI diagnostics tool in…

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NVDA and Private Credit Part 2

NVidia + AI Growth Jumping right in this week. I’ve clearly been far too risk-averse when it comes to Nvidia. I’ve been concerned that their margins will be eroded by competitive forces like in-house design at Meta, Google, Amazon or Microsoft. While that may happen eventually, that’s not something that this market is concerned with at the moment. I’ve started…

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Private Credit – More Context & Updates

Private Credit – More Context & Updates One of my continuous motivations for writing each week about markets and investing is to provide the context where it is lacking. Media machines are built on buzzwords and emotion and money is one of those highly emotional topics where the extremes get the clicks. Credit is typically not an extreme topic and…

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Khanmigo AI, Public vs Private

Khanmigo AI Example Many of you are already familiar with the online education resource Khan Academy. It’s one of my favorite educational organizations. In the mid-2000s, Salman Khan’s YouTube videos on math education went viral. The Gates Foundation asked him to focus full-time on developing his content into an accessible, high-quality online education platform as a philanthropic endeavor. I remember…

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GameStop and Fraud PSA

Social Organized Buying – Cult Behavior The classic meme stock GameStop is back in the narrative this week. I’ve seen many articles about GameStop expressing concern, disbelief, valuation advice, cautionary tales and anger over market manipulation. The power of Twitter influencers is not fully appreciated. Twitter was responsible for accelerating the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Keep this math in…

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Stablecoins, Argentina, Gemini

Stablecoins & Regulation The sentiment surrounding crypto in the US is still quite negative for several reasons. Many people are too embarrassed by proxy to be associated. The FTX implosion is still in recent memory, and CZ from Binance was just sentenced to four months in jail. The only positive growth for crypto in the US has been the launch…

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24/7 Markets, Immigration, Quantum Primer

24/7 Markets This week, there was a big push in the media by various parties to convert the stock market into a 24 hour market. Crypto, forex and certain futures markets already operate on a 24-hour trading schedule. Markets often move more when they are technically “closed”. Earnings are the prime example of this, where companies wait for the market…

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AI Speed, Nuclear, Quantum

AI Speed AI continues to develop globally at an extremely rapid pace. AI and LLMs are software-based, which means they can be iterated on, and updates can be deployed in real-time. It’s a challenge to keep up with even weekly AI-related developments. This talk from April 5th with Eric Schmidt is worth listening to. Here are a few takeaways: The…

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Ken Griffin on US Debt, Closed End VC, AI Update

Griffin on US Debt Last week, Ken Griffin, arguably the most powerful finance figure in the world, released his annual letter. The only market commentary he offered in the brief letter was his growing concern about US Debt and excessive spending. We’ve written about this: the cost of funding US interest rates has gone parabolic and is now at a…

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