Client Portals

ARTICLES

Written by Max & John Osbon

Weekly Articles by Osbon Capital Management:

Consensus Is Rare

Disagreement is essential for functional markets

Oct 15, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

It’s difficult to get a broad idea across in one headline. When it is done in the investment media, the bias almost always skews negative, mostly for dramatic effect. If all indicators were bad, everyone would want to sell and there would be no buyers. With positive consensus, on the other hand, there would be no sellers. A broad and balanced take on the market, with both positives and negative...

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Free Is Not Free

Why You Should Be Skeptical When Prices Drop to Zero

Oct 7, 2019 - Max Osbon ( 7 mins to read)

Schwab made the headlines last week when the company announced it was cutting its trading commissions to $0. While this may seem like a great deal and an obvious win for consumers, there is more to the story and cause to be dubious. Specifically, if Schwab earns nothing via buying and selling securities for its clients, then how does it actually make money? It’s a question worth asking. Let’s f...

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A Sample Of One – Politics and Investing

What The Markets Don’t Care About

Oct 2, 2019 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

For the second time in twenty years, talk of impeachment is in the air. Like last time, impeachment probably will happen, likely followed quickly by acquittal. The whole show could be over by the end of the year, according to the Speaker of the House. The markets have greeted this news with a giant yawn. Why isn't impeachment more of an event for markets? What are markets saying about the curre...

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Planning Steps for the Fourth Quarter of 2019

Sep 24, 2019 - Max Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

The fourth quarter of the investment year starts next week. This is a convenient time to either validate your progress to date or get back up to speed before the close of 2019. Taxes, trust and estates, life insurance, debt, expenses and cash management are worth taking a look into. Here are some steps to guide you to make sure that your investment house is in order. Check in on your tax-relat...

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Investment Anniversaries: What We Can Learn from Historic Days

Sep 18, 2019 - John Osbon ( 4 mins to read)

Not all investment days are created equal. There’s something about the start of Fall today that brings anniversaries to mind. Many people believe August, September and October are cursed times to invest, that stock plunges are inevitable and imminent. A closer look shows that important anniversaries are spread randomly throughout the year; surges and crashes know no calendar. Let’s take a close...

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Financial Repair Continues

It's Fannie and Freddie's Turn

Sep 11, 2019 - Max Osbon ( 4 mins to read)

Our two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been in the news this month with positive comments. Their stocks and other securities have responded with a sharp jump, indicating hope that we will return to a healthy mortgage market and get the government largely out of the mortgage business. The securities are officially worthless but speculators are betting that they will be worth a...

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100-Year Bonds for the United States

Better to Issue Than to Own

Sep 3, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

The US Treasury has been considering issuing 100-year bonds for some time. Based on recent comments by the US Treasury Secretary this may actually happen this year. These are unusual monetary times that allow the government to lower its financing costs. But what are the implications for US individual investors? Do bonds due in 2120 make sense for you? Current long-term rates in the US For exp...

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The Almighty Dollar

Dollar Strength Benefits Investors

Aug 26, 2019 - John Osbon ( 4 mins to read)

Heading into the final third of the investment year there are few sure things for investors to count on. One sure thing, however, is the US dollar. It has been appreciating slightly for years, and has been strong even though the US economy would be doing better with a slightly weaker dollar. Why do we believe dollar strength will persist? The only game in town The major currencies competing f...

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Stocks Are Alive and Kicking

Investors Can Keep Investing in Stocks

Aug 19, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

Forty years ago a Business Week cover story announced the "Death of Equities." The Dow was at 867. In the years since, as the Dow has risen 30x, we’ve seen other forecasts for the tragic demise of stocks, all wrong. In 1979, the doomsayers pointed to inflation and high taxes as the forces that would kill stocks. Healthy skepticism is valuable but consuming too much media-driven skepticism can h...

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