Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Four Months Until the Election

We are now less than four months away from the Presidential election on Tuesday, November 3rd. Our nation’s challenges with accelerated wealth inequality and climate change are larger than any single party’s political agenda. Like the others, this one is likely to be decided quickly, which means we will know the results in the middle of the night.  In chaotic…

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Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Neutral

Earnings season began this week on Tuesday and will continue through August 9th. The peak day is Thursday, July 30th with 286 companies reporting. The next earnings season won’t be until mid-October. Due to COVID, this quarter stands out as the most opaque, non-indicative earnings season ever. Risk on, risk off is no longer an adequate description for guiding investors…

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Data Is Acknowledged In Prices, Not Yet In News

Yuval Noah Harari is well known for his 2011 book, “Sapiens”. It’s a must read for everyone, regardless of their career or backgrounds, as it gives a thoughtful and thoroughly researched background on our civilization’s progress to date. His latest book, “21 Lessons for the 21st Century (2018)”, offers insights on how the information age is shaping our society. Unsurprisingly,…

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A Message of Unity

For this July 4th on Saturday we are sending out a picture of the various American Flags that have existed throughout the founding of our country. You can see how the stars and stripes have changed in number and design. These flags are a reminder that our country has changed a great deal in 244 years, and will continue to…

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Mid Year Temperature Check for Today

We continue to get mixed news on the market, the economy and the pandemic. Growth stocks are hitting new highs. The US economy is bouncing off the bottom. The pandemic is under control in Massachusetts and out of control in Arizona, Florida, and Texas. What are investor options as we head into the second half of the year? Focus on…

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It’s Always A Good Time To Invest In The Future

2020 has reminded us that change is a constant in life. Change often brings an unpleasant jolt to our nerves. The good news is that we are all adaptable and creative by nature. The more you lean into the future, the easier it is to see the ways that innovation flows around challenges and always seems to find a way…

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Investing During Times of Unrest

I first became aware of the riots, looting and cities on fire in the Sixties as a teenager in suburban New Jersey. It was very scary then, just as it is scary now. The cause of the unrest then was racial and financial, with an additional anti-war flavor due to Vietnam. I could not make any sense of the destruction….

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A Plan That Works For The Future

Traditional solutions in investment management often start with client questionnaires that try to identify risk preference. The result may include something along the lines of, “I’m a risk taker” or “I’m a risk avoider”. That process, as common as it is, has little relevance to the true needs of a family investment strategy. When an expense is essential, you avoid…

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The New Cold War With China

The first Cold War was between the United States and the Soviet Union and it lasted from 1947 to 1991. The Next Cold War, also known as the New Cold War, has various starting points. At the earliest, one could say it started with President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972. Or it started the year China was admitted to…

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