Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
How Yields Have Changed – 2018
It’s week four of the investing year. This week the government reopened. The president and eight cabinet members are in Davos. The news for stocks has been all positive so far this year, but what about bonds? What kind of cash flow can investors expect from fixed-income investments in 2018?
Set Your Anti-Goals for 2018
While your neighbors are trying to keep their resolutions for the new year, we suggest you take a slightly different path. Think about the financial behaviors you want AVOID in 2018. By resolving to NOT do a few things you can reduce your financial stress and improve your investment results. Here are some suggestions as the year begins.
An Old School Melt-Up
Jeremy Grantham is well known as a value investor and a permabear. He buys only cheap value investments. He has been famous for talking down US investments for years. However, on January 3rd of this year, he wrote “a very personal” view of a possible near-term melt-up. Jeremy is well worth listening, especially when he changes his mind.
The Year Ahead: 10 Trends
To kick off the year we’ve decided to publish our crystal ball list for 2018. From blockbuster IPOs to Blockchain billionaires, here are ten of our favorite developments.
New Tax Law: 529s and More
I have been spending as much time as possible reading about the newly enacted tax bill, the first tax reform signed in 31 years. All sides agree that the bill lowers tax rates for corporations and individuals. After that, there is little consensus on the broad effect of tax reform, who it really helps or harms, and how long it will last. The devil is in the details. Here are a couple items of special interest to investors.
What is Sayre’s Law?
With family in town for the holidays, you may find that the discussion turns to markets and politics at some point. The discussion may even get heated as common ground seems harder to find these days. In these moments, it’s helpful to remember Sayre’s Law. Sayre’s Law dictates that: “In any dispute, the intensity of the feeling is inversely proportional to the value of the issues at stake.” Here’s more:
A Financial Conversation Framework
With more family time than the rest of the year, the holidays can be an opportune time to talk about money and investing. But where do you start? Before you get into any technical aspects of planning or investing, we recommend you start with goals, values, fears and plans for success for money and life. It’s easier than it sounds. Here is a three-part framework we find leads to great conversations:
Bigger Gifts and Lower Taxes in 2017
2017 has been another big year in a long-running bull market. Your portfolio is probably full of holdings with significant capital gains. To avoid paying the tax on those gains, you may be holding onto securities you’re ready to sell. What to do? Well, if you have any charitable giving goals, consider giving away your capital gains bill in the process.
Why I Am Learning To Code
There is more freely available high-quality financial data out there than ever before. But the quantity of data doesn’t necessarily translate to quality of decisions. Big data can mean big problems when it comes to organizing, filtering, analyzing and displaying it — all of which are prerequisites for using the data to make a decision.
