Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.

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Raising Cash – New Era Coming

These are truly unprecedented times. Over the last few days we’ve stepped out of the traditional wealth management playbook and have sold significant portions of our clients’ holdings. What started as a supply chain issue has rapidly turned into a health crisis followed by demand issues and a budding debt crisis. The sequence does not make a lot of sense now but it will eventually play out in full in the financial markets. As it becomes clearer that there is an incredible degree of unknown risks at play, here are some things to consider:

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Turbulence Expected or Unexpected

This week we are writing about new developments in Covid-19 and worldwide markets, as there are many. Covid-19 is negatively affecting markets this week because of the uncertainty about when new outbreaks will stop. Over the weekend, a new market – oil – was significantly affected by an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, rates in the US,…

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COVID-19 And The Weeks Ahead

Last week we experienced the first material market reaction to the Coronavirus, aka COVID-19. For months, prices had completely ignored any risks of the virus spreading until finally the news broke that it had reached the United States. This market reaction was a true black swan moment in that no experts or models could have adequately predicted it. Here’s a…

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When Experts Disagree

For the last two months it seems all we have heard about is disagreement. I am not talking about political disagreement. I am referring to investment disagreements and convincing opposing arguments put forth by experts I read, with mixed signals in the markets as well. Here is a list of the six main points of disagreement and what we are…

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When News Lets You Down, Go To The Primary Sources

We live in the Age of Data. There’s an endless stream of data points on every topic, especially in the field of economics. The media and politicians regularly serve up numbers that support their point of view. If you feel it’s hard to trust these data-driven arguments, you’re right. When data is cherry-picked, omitted, conflated or obscured, any conclusions must…

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Overruling Yourself

Last week the coronavirus overtook SARS in the number of deaths. The impeachment process was impugned by both sides. The Iowa voting was bungled. Party politics are more divisive and meaner than ever. In other words, we’re surrounded by a large field of negativity right now. Given this fact of life in 2020, how should investors respond to the barrage…

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Routine, Complex and Innovative Investment Management

Let’s take a break from politics and global health to talk about your portfolio management. There are three necessary components of your investment management. You’re familiar with the first part, all of the routine tasks typically associated with investing. Eventually there’s a need for the second element, where advanced analysis kicks in. Forward-looking and innovation-based activities comprise the third piece….

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The Math of Retirement

There are many ways to look at your financial circumstances over the course of a lifetime, but at some point we all give some thought about how well prepared we are for retirement. Will money be tight, or will we have plenty to live the life we envision? Do we need to make changes in investments, spending or expectations? Let’s…

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More Spending, No Recession

Investors are always on the lookout for the next recession, because a recession can slow down or reverse portfolio appreciation for a year or two. Moreover, a recession reveals a lot of investment mistakes which no one likes to be reminded of. Here are three measures to look at when trying to determine if a recession is coming and if…

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