Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Mistakes that never need to happen
JP Morgan’s startling trading loss of $2-5 billion is a good reminder to investors to watch out for hidden problems in their own portfolios – unknowns that should have been known. After the fact, it is easy to see how JPM went astray, but is it possible to see – or avert – one’s own problems ahead of time? Yes, and here’s what to look for.
Investing’s best cheat sheet
If I was asked to present the three or four most important ideas in investing and could only bring one sheet of paper with me, it would be no contest. I’d bring the Andex Chart from Morningstar. I’m not sure how they managed to get so much market history onto one sheet of paper, but I’m glad they did. In…
Bonds get no respect
Last week was remarkably good for many investors, but you’d never know it from the headlines. While big losses in the equity market got all the attention, bond prices surged. Bond reached new highs last week as investors couldn’t seem to get enough US 10-year Treasury bonds. The yield on that bond dropped below 1.5 percent, an all-time low since…
How hard is it to beat an index?
Pretty hard, as it turns out. Take, for instance, the S&P 500, the bellwether large cap index. The index produced a 5 percent annualized return over the last 15 years. How many of its 500 component stocks beat the index over that timeframe? The number and names may surprise you.
3 Reasons to ignore the fuss over Facebook
I think it’s safe to say there’s never been an initial public offering (IPO) quite like Facebook’s. The pre-IPO excitement and buzz were quickly replaced by post-IPO angst and accusations. The IPO’s price debacle – I’m calling it Faceplant – has revealed many of the flaws and risks inherent in the IPO game. There are plenty of upset investors calling…
But will it last?
A sizable retirement portfolio doesn’t just happen. Building one requires effort, knowledge, and resolve. It typically takes decades of disciplined savings, sensible asset allocation, and the courage to hang in there when markets get dicey. And even then the work’s not done. Because after amassing a nest egg, the big question looms: How long will it last?
Washington Summit Part Two
I decided to fly to Washington, DC, for one day last week for Bloomberg’s Washington Summit. I went for three reasons: density, depth, and debate. Three Congressmen, three Nobel prize winners, one Cabinet member, and a gaggle of politicos, entrepreneurs, and regulators – all in one place, in one day! There’s no substitute for an onsite question and answer format. I expected…
Greenspan on Markets
Going to Washington, DC, which is what I did earlier this week for the Bloomberg Washington Summit, is like going to another galaxy. In the DC solar system, politicians, policy makers, influence peddlers, and appointees seem to orbit around each other, each seeking to exert more gravitational pull than the next. You could see, for example, the effect of a planetary…
Invest in your kids
529 plans, also known as “qualified tuition plans” have been available since 2001 and are designed to encourage saving for higher education through tax deferral. In my opinion, they are one of the sweetest deals around. It’s no wonder 529s have grown to total more than $144 billion. Here are some client comments about 529s, and why they use them.
