Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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An Old School Melt-Up
Jeremy Grantham is well known as a value investor and a permabear. He buys only cheap value investments. He has been famous for talking down US investments for years. However, on January 3rd of this year, he wrote “a very personal” view of a possible near-term melt-up. Jeremy is well worth listening, especially when he changes his mind.
The Year Ahead: 10 Trends
To kick off the year we’ve decided to publish our crystal ball list for 2018. From blockbuster IPOs to Blockchain billionaires, here are ten of our favorite developments.
New Tax Law: 529s and More
I have been spending as much time as possible reading about the newly enacted tax bill, the first tax reform signed in 31 years. All sides agree that the bill lowers tax rates for corporations and individuals. After that, there is little consensus on the broad effect of tax reform, who it really helps or harms, and how long it will last. The devil is in the details. Here are a couple items of special interest to investors.
What is Sayre’s Law?
With family in town for the holidays, you may find that the discussion turns to markets and politics at some point. The discussion may even get heated as common ground seems harder to find these days. In these moments, it’s helpful to remember Sayre’s Law. Sayre’s Law dictates that: “In any dispute, the intensity of the feeling is inversely proportional to the value of the issues at stake.” Here’s more:
A Financial Conversation Framework
With more family time than the rest of the year, the holidays can be an opportune time to talk about money and investing. But where do you start? Before you get into any technical aspects of planning or investing, we recommend you start with goals, values, fears and plans for success for money and life. It’s easier than it sounds. Here is a three-part framework we find leads to great conversations:
Bigger Gifts and Lower Taxes in 2017
2017 has been another big year in a long-running bull market. Your portfolio is probably full of holdings with significant capital gains. To avoid paying the tax on those gains, you may be holding onto securities you’re ready to sell. What to do? Well, if you have any charitable giving goals, consider giving away your capital gains bill in the process.
Why I Am Learning To Code
There is more freely available high-quality financial data out there than ever before. But the quantity of data doesn’t necessarily translate to quality of decisions. Big data can mean big problems when it comes to organizing, filtering, analyzing and displaying it — all of which are prerequisites for using the data to make a decision.
Thankful Money Mindsets
Gratitude is such an empowering and satisfying emotion, it deserves more than one day on the calendar. And we have so much to be thankful for, both personally and professionally. This is especially true in the investment world. From the perspective of modern investors, here are three things that we can all be thankful for in the spirit of Thanksgiving.
Get ready for 2018 IPOs
The total US stock market size is shrinking due to buybacks and takeovers. (WSJ). Private companies are being acquired before the public can invest in them. What’s the response? IPO! Gaze at the most likely IPOs for 2018, some well known and others not. Should you invest in any of them? If you do, get ready for a wild ride.
