Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
The history of modern investing on a single sheet
If you invested one dollar in small stocks in 1926 and then took an 87 year nap, you’d be waking up today with $18,000+. That’s the power of compounding – one of the many interesting concepts portrayed in the annual Andex chart produced by Morningstar. With its exceptional representation of long-term market trends, I consider the Andex chart one of…
Four flavors of risk
We’ve been discussing risk often on this blog this year, trying to come at it from a number of different angles. It’s one of those core topics in investing that deserves all the attention it gets. No doubt about it, risk is a big word in investing. Too big, in my view, to have much meaning unless one looks deeper…
NCAA brackets and the challenge of forecasting
The NCAA basketball pool is a blast every year. Your cleverly selected bracket plays out as a month-long clash between delight and despair as some of your teams heroically advance and others are squished like bugs. It’s college sports at its best. Predicting winners and losers is a great way to entertain yourself every March, but it’s no way to…
Passive power
People often refer to index-based investing as “passive” investing. Some view that label as a negative – as if that investment style is somehow weak, unsophisticated, or the refuge of the lazy. I disagree completely. And I’ll tell you why. Index based investing, using ETFs (exchange traded funds) to invest in diverse markets, earns its p-word moniker. Index ETFs simply…
Getting ahead by not falling behind
Over time unforeseen risks can and will accumulate in a portfolio. Interest rate risks, market risks, inflation risks, default risks, and the risk of improper diversification are examples of potential pitfalls that must be persistently monitored.
Play to win
Wouldn’t it be nice to be fairly sure you were going to win every time you went out on the tennis court or hockey rink? Based on recently released performance stats, I guess Vanguard must know that feeling. Its funds had a good year in 2012, which has been the pattern for quite some time now. They make it look…
Sponsor Team Osbon
In about four months my son Max and I will proudly take the field at Columbia University’s Wien Stadium for The RBC Decathlon where we’ll give it our all for the benefit of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. We’re excited for the event and ramping up our training. But we need your help. Since you won’t be able to help us…
The risk of being human
Last week we discussed different aspects of risk and how to measure it. I’d like to follow up with a short note about a primary source of risk. I’m sorry to say it’s looking you in the mirror. Human nature can be costly More and more peer-reviewed research is piling up that confirms an unhappy truth – individual investors are…
A Fresh Look at Risk
Investing is risky. That’s no secret. But I find that many investors get fixated on the elements of risk that matter least and ignore the risks that matter most. When I meet with new clients I try to focus the discussion on the real and personal side of risk, not on textbook definitions. The best measure: Shortfall risk We define…
