Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Finally a free lunch! Or maybe not.
When one basket of stocks pays a 2 percent dividend yield, and another, seemingly very similar one pays 6 percent, which one do you want to own? In today’s one percent bond yield world, it’s not a hypothetical question. Two popular ETFs, both comprised of some of the world’s best known companies, present this puzzle. Let’s sort it out.
Dividend cliff-jumping
At some point, the 15% tax rate on dividends will go up. Or will it? We don’t know for sure. But there are all sorts of dire predictions about the future of dividend yields and stock prices based on the higher dividend tax rate that will apply if we are swept off the fiscal cliff. Some are even suggesting selling…
Capital preservation through growth
As we discussed last time, it’s just not realistic to hope to stay ahead of inflation’s slow but persistent drain without assuming some risk. For investors whose first goal is to preserve capital, a growth strategy is the appropriate response, in our view. Here’s why. By our definition, a growth strategy means a portfolio of diversified securities – stocks, bond,…
Don’t let gravity get you down
“I never want to lose money.” This sounds like a modest and reasonable investment goal, one that would be far easier to achieve than one that, for instance, aims for significant growth over a long time span. But is it? Is it feasible to invest and never lose money? How would you do it and might you regret it?
2012 currency impacts
Last week we discussed how owning international securities adds an extra layer of risk, due to currency exchange rates. This time we look at the actual year-to-date return of major indexes, both before and after currency conversions. The big currency fluctuations may not be where you would have expected.
Ignore currencies at your peril
Many US investors are just that: they invest mostly in US stocks and bonds. But many also diversify their investments outside our borders, buying securities domiciled in other countries, and denominated in their respective currencies. What are the risks related to international investments, and are they worth it?
Your advisor is moving. Should you, too?
It could happen to you. Or maybe it already has. Your advisor is moving to a different employer. Change happens. Frequently. Every year 12-13% of financial advisors change employers or their firms are sold or merged. That’s a lot of motion. If your advisor moves, should you follow? What do you need to know before you make that decision?
Fee war in your favor
Three exchange traded fund (ETF) sponsors – State Street, Vanguard, and BlackRock – control more than 80% of the massive ETF market. Each can claim advantages. State Street has the two biggest ETFs: SPY and GLD. BlackRock was first to market, and has the largest market share. Vanguard has the lowest costs. All three aspire to a larger market share,…
Pursuing better
Now and then a great business emerges because it does something no one else can through a breakthrough technology or discovery. But far more often, success comes to those who simply “do things better.” This may mean improving the auto engine to get more miles to the gallon, or providing faster turnaround on dry cleaning, creating a tastier coffee grind,…
