Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Like ducks in the desert
A steady current of surprise and unease has been running through the popular financial press and blogosphere during the long current bull run for US stocks. Many pundits seem confused and worried, like ducks in the desert, that something is seriously wrong. The S&P 500 is now up 100% since the bad old days two years ago. And the benchmark…
Are you overpaying?
The headline, “Fund industry overpaid by $1,300 billion” caught my eye in the Financial Times on April 3rd. Hmmm, somebody finally put a number on it. Here’s what FT reported based on a survey by the IBM Institute of Business Value regarding the fund management industry. Value destruction in 3 easy pieces The IBM survey of 2600 major users of…
Money is Money, No Matter the Source
Over your lifetime, you may receive or accumulate securities through gift, inheritance, sale of a business, stock option plans, 401(k) plans, or other sources. How you came into possession of the assets can easily influence investment decisions. For instance, it may seem like treason to sell any of the stock that your father accumulated in his employer’s company before his…
Do you own the next BP?
April 22nd is the first year anniversary of the largest offshore oil spill in United States history. The tragic 2010 explosion of BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico taught difficult lessons about drilling risks, industry regulation, and environmental protection. The spill was also a stark reminder for investors about the dangers of owning the wrong stock at…
Boo! Is Your Portfolio Fear-Proof?
There’s no question that fear moves markets. The devastation in Japan scared many investors not only out of Japanese companies and funds, but also out of the nuclear power industry, insurers, companies with import/export ties to the island nation, and even equity markets on the other side of the planet. Investors don’t like uncertainty and shocks like Japan can trigger…
When the Music Stops
Markets hum along to their own beat and rhythm, until they don’t. From time to time, the music suddenly stops. It might be Libya, devastation in Japan, or potential bankruptcy in Greece that triggers a sudden silence and jarring price dislocations. We typically get no advance warning at all. This time, however, we know when a big one is coming –…
Self-dentistry is a bad idea
An entrepreneur who creates, manages, and grows a company should be able to do the same with an investment portfolio, no? After all, success is transferable, isn’t it? The very qualities that make a great entrepreneur should also make for a great money manager. Right? I don’t think so, and here’s why.
What’s Wrong with Emerging Markets?
While the US markets are up nicely since the beginning of the year, emerging markets are down. What’s going on? After all, China, Brazil, and other developing economies have the enviable trade surpluses, high growth rates, and excess reserves that the US doesn’t. Are the new “bankers to the world” who have been funding our growth by buying US Treasuries…
Qaddafi Duck
All eyes are on Libya and its infamous dictator, Colonel Qaddafi. Beyond his support of international terrorism and his murderous assault on his own people, Qaddafi is truly an odd duck. Whether he threatens martyrdom while wearing earmuffs on national TV, insists he can’t resign because he “holds no position,” or is accompanied by young gun-toting female bodyguards, his actions…
