Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Emergence of the Retail Trader
The wild ride with GameStop stock, Wall Street Bets, Robinhood and Melvin capital last month was an incredible moment for retail traders. Retail trading today is defined by ultra passionate investment forums, endless supplies of memes, zero dollar trading costs and easy access to powerful financial derivatives called options contracts. Everyone wants to know where these massive groups of traders…
The Big Cash Glut
The term “too big to fail” was coined following the collapse of Lehman Brothers bank in the heat of the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed chose this term to describe a company with so much complexity and interconnectedness that if they failed they would create an unacceptable amount of financial damage for the rest of the economy. This switch to…
Total Picture Investing
We’ve noticed a significant jump lately in the number of people interested in long term investment planning. Given how COVID has upended so many plans, this is not all that surprising. It’s clear that many are thinking about semi-retirement, full retirement, or working from home in perpetuity. Many are considering what it would be like to focus on a new…
SPACs Must Be Evaluated Like Any Investment
There is a lot of talk about the stock market of 2000 and concerns of a bubble. Yet out of that dot com bubble came Amazon, Apple and many other invaluable innovative technology companies. Twenty years later that internet-crazed market is much more valuable than it was in 2000 and many more investment choices are available. In a similar way…
Where To Allocate New Capital
With markets hitting fresh highs, a perennial investment question remains: “where do investors allocate new capital in 2021?” Successful investing today is closely linked to an ability to embrace optimism and celebrate the coming waves of disruption and innovation. Broad skepticism and pessimism have not been winning strategies. As the internet age enters its cloud computing and artificial intelligence years,…
Value Is Where You Find It
In elementary terms, value investing means investing when you feel the price is below what it should be. This value philosophy has created many successful billionaire investors like Seth Klarman, Warren Buffett and others. It’s an intuitive philosophy. One should always seek to invest at levels consistent with the value concept. The challenge today is many traditional metrics of value…
Looking Ahead Towards 2021
The calendar has changed to 2021, but in reality, not much else has. The whole world needs vaccines and that will take all year to deploy. The business models of technology-focused companies will continue to get stronger even though we will be ‘back to normal’ by the end of the year. Bonds have zero to negative yields, the Fed continues…
Themes To Consider In 2021
As we close this calendar year and head into 2021, we have an opportunity to reflect on the major changes taking place. Change is a constant. However, the change experienced this year has accelerated due to COVID. We have included links to five of our most valuable investment articles of 2020 (below) to highlight trends we’ve identified and expect to…
Five Books to Add To Your List This Holiday Season
Elon Musk, Phil Knight, General McChrystal, Bill Browder and the Royal Family have excellent lessons to share on overcoming adversity. When you read about General McChrystal’s experience, you can see that we live in an increasingly complex world where adaptability has become more valuable than efficiency. Here are five engaging books for your holiday reading list covering the theme of…
