Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Pimco: If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em
Give credit to the active investment management powerhouses. Having watched more than a trillion dollars flow out of mutual funds and into exchange traded funds (ETFs), the largest active mutual fund managers had to do something. Several have taken the leap and joined the ETF party. Pimco’s Bill Gross, the eponymous Bond King, is the latest to embrace the ETF structure. Is…
What’s best for the client?
When you create a wealth management practice from the ground up, as I did in 2005, you must make many choices about how to structure, staff, and operate the business. It’s been a complex process building Osbon Capital, made considerably easier by asking one question over and over: What’s best for the client?
How often do you check your portfolio?
The answer to this question can tell you a lot about a person. For many, it is “Always!” Constant market checkers mentally recalculate their net worth every few hours and look for minute-by-minute trends to inform their next trades. For others, it is “Never!” Hoping to find bliss in ignorance, never-checkers leave their assets to fend for themselves. I suggest…
Blaming umbrellas for the rain
Can a candidate buy an election? Or can a Super PAC make the purchase for him? All of the media attention on election spending had me wondering if this is a nomination process or simply an auction. But does spending by candidates and PACs actually predict success? And what does this have to do with investing? Here’s what I’ve learned.
Charts look ominous, but can we trust them?
My son Max is a superstar in the making at Bloomberg, and therefore has access to the latest market intelligence 24/7. When I got a note from him last week about a potential market disaster looming on the horizon, it gave me a chill.
What I write and why I write it
At Osbon Capital, we continuously seek to improve every aspect of the business. Most recently we’ve been reworking our web site to bring our index-only philosophy to the fore and make our extensive library of articles easier to use and peruse.
Busting the correlation myth
When securities move in the same direction at the same time, that’s called correlation. If all stocks are highly correlated it doesn’t really matter what you own; all stocks rise or fall on the same fickle tide. “Everything moves together,” many complain. This is a common perception these days, but is it supported by the facts? Has over-correlation killed the…
Planning over punditry
It’s always a pleasure to read Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien’s annual 10 Surprises list. For breadth, open-mindedness, and contrarian thinking, Byron’s list, published since 1986, can’t be beat. But should you invest your money this way? Is Byron’s list, and those of less talented pundits, a reliable source of investment management guidance? I say no, and here’s why.
The Whole, and the Parts
The investment returns for 2011 are now officially in. It was a good year for many asset classes, like bonds, gold, and domestic stocks. For others, like emerging markets, it was straight down. I am happy to report that the four of the largest index positions at Osbon Capital – DIA, GLD, TIP, and VNQ – had positive returns ranging…
