Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Amid market panic, remember your time horizon
All eyes, some red with market fatigue, are on the Dow and other benchmarks. After 10 days of staggering declines, I imagine there are still many investors with their fingers poised on the panic button, ready at the next sign of trouble to get out of stocks. Many have left the party already. Nobody wants to own stocks right now.
Dividends on dividends
Last week, some readers expressed surprise that stocks, as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, had outperformed gold over the last 40 years. In that timeframe gold is up 45x while the Dow rose from 888 to 12,600 – a 14x return. Nice, but not the 53x we attributed to the Dow. What gives?
Faith-based investing part two: The Dollar
Last week I talked about faith-based investing as represented by the $9 trillion US Treasury securities market, and the promise to repay backed by the “full faith and credit” of the United States government. This week I would like to note the 40th birthday of a faith-based investment that dwarfs the Treasury market in size: the dollar.
Faith-based investing, as in “full faith and credit”
I can hardly wait for Wednesday morning, August 3rd. By that date at the latest we will know what Congress has decided to do about raising the United States debt limit. The “full faith and credit” of the United States and its AAA rating are at stake. We are all waiting to know what will Congress do and how. Will…
$150 Oil. It could be worse.
A lengthy Barron’s article by Gene Epstein over the weekend calls for $150/barrel oil in the next 12 months. As one of the 8 most important prices in the world, the tab for oil can have a profound impact on business performance, economic growth, and the risk and return of investment portfolios. So what happens if the Barron’s prediction is…
Greek drama is based on previous plays
Modern Western theatre as we know it is said to have originated 2600 years ago in Athens, with Thespis as the first winner of a theatrical contest. The world could use an orator like him now to explain to the unhappy masses what an awful economic mess they are in. How will they get out? We have four examples to…
Festival of Black Swans
Last week, Bloomberg LP convened its first Money Managers Conference in Boston to explore the topic: Preparing for the Next Black Swans. The conference brought together 25 professional money managers before an audience of investment professionals and journalists (and a live stream to 300,000 terminals) to consider “strategies should the unthinkable happen.” Last week I wrote about my own panel…
John Osbon to speak at The Bloomberg Money Manager Conference
John Osbon of Osbon Capital will be a panelist at The Bloomberg Money Managers Conference in Boston on June 14. The conference, titled “Preparing for the Next Black Swans,” focuses on the impact of major unexpected events that can send markets reeling. The conference brings together top money managers for a candid exchange of ideas on future Black Swans. What’s…
Five reasons why investing gets harder as you get wealthier
It’s a paradox of wealth. As your net worth grows and you start thinking investing will finally get easier, you may find the opposite is true. It turns out that choosing the right investments and financial advisors can become more difficult, or at least more confusing, as you amass assets. Here are five reasons why.