Client Portals

Weekly Articles by Osbon Capital Management:

The Dollar, Population and Productivity

Sep 7, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

The Dollar The US dollar has soared in value recently to a multi-decade peak. The Euro is at parity for the first time in twenty years and the British Pound is getting closer to parity, something that happened only once for a very brief period in the 80’s. There are big shifts happening in all markets, and the currency market is no exception. As of today, we are unlikely to see a full yie...


The Fed, DNA Sequencing, More AI Developments

Aug 31, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 7 mins to read)

Don't Fight The Fed It’s an important time to practice investment patience. September brings another CPI release (Sept 13) followed by a Fed rate decision (Sept 21). The Fed has said many times they will continue to tighten until the inflation rate comes down. For now, we can get an early peek at the inflation numbers that will arrive at the Fed by looking at commodity markets. Notably, i...


Inflation Update, Realistic Energy Transition, Stablecoins

Aug 17, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 9 mins to read)

Inflation Update The next Fed rate hike on September 21 depends on inflation metrics. One place to get an early peek at inflation is in commodity markets movements: Gasoline is down -35% from its peak in June, but still up y/y. Oil is down -20% from the high in June but still up 40% over the past year. Lumber, one of my favorite markets, is now officially negative y/y. Copper i...


Inflation, Pivots, XPrize

Aug 10, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

Inflation Last week we wrote about five key economic dates to keep a close eye on. The first, yesterday’s CPI inflation print, did not disappoint. Year over year, CPI inflation ticked down from 9.1% to 8.5%, and the monthly inflation was flat. About a month ago, we wrote about commodity market prices like oil, copper, wheat and corn falling roughly 30% from their highs. It takes time for marke...


The Budget, Key Dates, Recession

Aug 3, 2022 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

Important Dates Ahead The Fed has said its actions will be data-dependent. We will all be watching closely when the next two (CPI) Consumer Price Index readings come out as well as the next (PCE) Personal Consumption Expenditure Index results. The PCE is a Fed favorite because they feel it is a more accurate representation of inflation. The next Fed rate decision will give us another point of ...


Apple Health, Sentiment, Chips

Jul 27, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 7 mins to read)

Apple’s Convergence Device - Health One of the amazing things about software is that it gives engineers near infinite creation and creativity abilities. In particular, the iPhone is an excellent playground for testing new products and features because we carry it everywhere we go, it’s always on, and it’s full of useful sensors that can be used to record the outside world. This month Apple rel...


Bear or Bull, AI Art, Industrial Literacy

Jul 20, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

Bear or Bull There are many people out there who make a lot of money telling people the world is going to end. Unfortunately, we're wired to heed these warnings, and there's not much we can do to change that. The results tell a different story. In the face of even the worst circumstances, bull market growth outpaces bear market losses by a vast margin. The first six months of 2022 gave us the ...


Fusion, Choices, Real Estate

Jul 13, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

Fusion While we deal with the fallout from Covid, political divides, the Ukraine invasion, supply chain issues, inflation and monetary policy changes, innovation and progress still manage to find a way to push forward. Bad news elicits strong emotional reactions, which drives more advertising revenue, and progress rarely gets the attention it deserves. The following is a positive story on ener...


Commodities, AI, Automation

Jul 6, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

Commodities Falling Commodity market prices have dropped swiftly over the past few weeks, which should help ease inflation worries. Oil is almost back where it was pre-Ukraine invasion, in the mid $ 90's. Copper is down -30% from its high in February. Natural gas is down -40% over the past month, which translates to lower prices for fertilizer and electricity. Wheat and corn are down -30% from...