Client Portals

ARTICLES

Written by Max & John Osbon

Weekly Articles by Osbon Capital Management:

Living In The Future

Apr 29, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

What does the future hold? For optimists, the future is defined by net improvements and net progress. Optimism doesn’t require perfection and human ingenuity is a powerful force. Someday the virus will be gone, we will be able to travel the world worry-free, go to any restaurant at any time, the economy will be chugging along again and those who need a job will find one. With significant price ...

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The Bull Cases

Looking Forward to Better

Apr 22, 2020 - John Osbon ( 8 mins to read)

Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin said on April 19th that it will be months, not years, before the US economy is back to its previous strength. He has a big hand in making that happen. The Federal Reserve and the government have introduced record stimulus packages in record time, and clearly they are not finished. In the face of this coordinated activity, riskier assets reversed course an...

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The Eye of the Storm

And Paths To Recovery

Apr 15, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 9 mins to read)

In the first quarter of 2020, we experienced the first unexpected and unprecedented shock wave from the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimates on what will happen next are open to a wide range of guesses, from a V-shaped recovery (via CNBC) to a brief recession (El Erian), to a global depression (Ray Dalio). There seems to be a consensus that things will get worse before they get better. Does that me...

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The Crude Story of Oil

Don’t Be Misled By Dividend Yields

Apr 8, 2020 - John Osbon ( 9 mins to read)

Daily global oil demand was 100 million barrels per day in 2019 and was expected to be slightly more in 2020. In the new COVID economy, daily demand is difficult to determine although it is clearly significantly lower. Some say it is 77 million barrels per day. Some say it is much lower, questioning who is driving cars and who is riding in airplanes. Further, Saudi Arabia and Russia are in a pr...

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Not So Fast, Major Obstacles Remain

Apr 1, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 8 mins to read)

As of late Wednesday bulls and bears can take their pick from a wide menu of opinions. Bulls say a vaccine is coming and the curve is flattening. Bears point to record Fed and government packages that carry a huge cost. The bears, like Jeff Gundlach and Howard Marks, come from the bond market side. Naturally, they see much more selling and unprecedented intervention to stabilize markets. The bu...

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Buying Signs In An Uncertain World

Imagine the Unthinkable

Mar 25, 2020 - John Osbon ( 8 mins to read)

Since we have a large amount of cash in client accounts it’s natural that we are looking for signs of when to buy again. It’s important that these signs are real and measurable. There are currently 25 indicators on our internal list in 5 different categories and the list is growing daily. In this article I will mention the major event in each category since those are the ones none of us has exp...

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Raising Cash – New Era Coming

Mar 18, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 7 mins to read)

These are truly unprecedented times. Over the last few days we've stepped out of the traditional wealth management playbook and have sold significant portions of our clients' holdings. What started as a supply chain issue has rapidly turned into a health crisis followed by demand issues and a budding debt crisis. The sequence does not make a lot of sense now but it will eventually play out in full in the financial markets. As it becomes clearer that there is…

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Turbulence Expected or Unexpected

Preparation and strategy prevails

Mar 11, 2020 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

This week we are writing about new developments in Covid-19 and worldwide markets, as there are many. Covid-19 is negatively affecting markets this week because of the uncertainty about when new outbreaks will stop. Over the weekend, a new market – oil – was significantly affected by an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, rates in the US, the highest of any developed market, ...

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COVID-19 And The Weeks Ahead

Mar 2, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 7 mins to read)

Last week we experienced the first material market reaction to the Coronavirus, aka COVID-19. For months, prices had completely ignored any risks of the virus spreading until finally the news broke that it had reached the United States. This market reaction was a true black swan moment in that no experts or models could have adequately predicted it. Here’s a look at what has happened to date an...

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