Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)

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Khanmigo AI, Public vs Private

Khanmigo AI Example Many of you are already familiar with the online education resource Khan Academy. It’s one of my favorite educational organizations. In the mid-2000s, Salman Khan’s YouTube videos on math education went viral. The Gates Foundation asked him to focus full-time on developing his content into an accessible, high-quality online education platform as a philanthropic endeavor. I remember…

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GameStop and Fraud PSA

Social Organized Buying – Cult Behavior The classic meme stock GameStop is back in the narrative this week. I’ve seen many articles about GameStop expressing concern, disbelief, valuation advice, cautionary tales and anger over market manipulation. The power of Twitter influencers is not fully appreciated. Twitter was responsible for accelerating the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Keep this math in…

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Stablecoins, Argentina, Gemini

Stablecoins & Regulation The sentiment surrounding crypto in the US is still quite negative for several reasons. Many people are too embarrassed by proxy to be associated. The FTX implosion is still in recent memory, and CZ from Binance was just sentenced to four months in jail. The only positive growth for crypto in the US has been the launch…

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24/7 Markets, Immigration, Quantum Primer

24/7 Markets This week, there was a big push in the media by various parties to convert the stock market into a 24 hour market. Crypto, forex and certain futures markets already operate on a 24-hour trading schedule. Markets often move more when they are technically “closed”. Earnings are the prime example of this, where companies wait for the market…

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AI Speed, Nuclear, Quantum

AI Speed AI continues to develop globally at an extremely rapid pace. AI and LLMs are software-based, which means they can be iterated on, and updates can be deployed in real-time. It’s a challenge to keep up with even weekly AI-related developments. This talk from April 5th with Eric Schmidt is worth listening to. Here are a few takeaways: The…

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Ken Griffin on US Debt, Closed End VC, AI Update

Griffin on US Debt Last week, Ken Griffin, arguably the most powerful finance figure in the world, released his annual letter. The only market commentary he offered in the brief letter was his growing concern about US Debt and excessive spending. We’ve written about this: the cost of funding US interest rates has gone parabolic and is now at a…

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AI Productivity Evidence

AI Productivity Evidence Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently remarked, “AI should lead to increases in productivity.” US GDP growth has been surprisingly resilient lately at a 3.4% real rate. Generally, GDP growth can be divided into changes in population, productivity and debt. The positive take on AI-driven productivity is that there is incredible demand (spending) for AI productivity tools. Successful…

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Positive Momentum, SceneScript, Nuclear

Positive Momentum The outlook on US markets remains surprisingly optimistic. I say “surprisingly” because it’s unusual to have such a prolonged increase in valuations without any dips or pauses. The consumer and the largest tech companies have successfully adjusted to life with higher rates. The concerns about a hit to earnings did not materialize, mostly due to layoffs and a…

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Green Energy Transitions Part 2

We spent last week framing the ambitions, progress, practicalities and challenges of the green energy transition. This week, we are discussing how this framing translates to investing. The green energy transition market is small in the context of global investing. Small markets have more price volatility because consistent index flows do not support prices. Recall that over 50% of new…

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