Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Revisiting Inflation
A typical suburban family is more sensitive to gas prices than a city resident. A contractor is more sensitive to lumber prices than a software programmer. What you consume changes your inflationary experience. If you are looking to buy a home or send kids to college you might complain about inflation more than a retiree whose house has been paid…
Checking In On The State of Crypto
Checking In On The State of Crypto The past 12 months of cryptocurrency growth has minted an astonishing number of new millionaires and billionaires faster than any point in modern history. We wrote back in November last year that social proof and adoption rates are the primary drivers of crypto returns. That’s still true today. Recent reports suggest that 46…
Why The Lumber Chart Has Gone Parabolic
The lumber futures chart has been one of the most interesting economic price charts to watch over the past year. Lumber prices in the futures market are based on random length construction boards like 2x4s. Since 1978, the price has bounced between $200 and $400, with a brief all-time high of $600 in 2018. However, over the past year, the…
Charts That Tell The Story
Employment rates, financial support by the US government, debt levels and savings rates are crucial markers of economic health. Sometimes it’s better to skip the front pages of Axios, WSJ, or Financial Times, and go directly to the source to let the numbers speak for themselves. Going directly to the primary sources is a great habit that can help filter…
Rethinking The Growth vs Value Debate
Value vs. growth is a long-standing debate within the investment profession. For decades, growth critics have pointed to outrageous valuations while voicing uncertainty about future growth prospects. On the other hand, value critics have argued that it’s worth paying higher prices for leading-edge businesses. Over the last year, this debate has become the topic du jour and both parties acknowledge…
Venture Debt Is A Bright Spot In A Low Interest Rate World
We all know about the fabulous returns from venture capital investing. If you were one of the early backers of Facebook, Google or Netflix, your return would be hundreds of times your initial investment. A common complaint among company founders is that early on, they sell too much equity for too little because they need the money for expansion. Venture…
Sky High Expectations For Flying Cars
The future of the flying car, eVTOL (electric vertical take off and landing) has gained considerable attention over the past year. Most recently, several SPACs have helped bring eVTOL technology to public markets at multi-billion dollar valuations. Considering the rapid pace of innovation today, it’s worth considering whether the hype matches reality. How should investors think about this emergent flying…
Investing With Leverage
With the $15B Archegos blowup over the weekend creating headlines, it’s a good time to revisit the role that leverage plays in investing. Leverage is a powerful tool that works both ways as it accelerates wins and losses. With the cost of debt at historically low levels, it can be tempting to borrow as much as possible. What types of…
Growing Opportunities In Health Care Innovation
The global pandemic greatly accelerated the adoption of virtual healthcare. Innovative technology in the healthcare sector offers an opportunity to reduce costs while reaching more people in need. Spending on healthcare goods and services is almost four trillion dollars annually, currently 18% of GDP. Let’s take a look at the near-term trends and contributing factors. Exponential evolution There are a handful…
