Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.

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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)

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Looks Small and Plays Big

At Osbon Capital, John Osbon is the conductor, but where’s his orchestra? We often hear the question: How many employees do you have? Our reply – zero – is a surprise to some. The business is operated by two partner owners. John Osbon manages all client portfolios and investment strategy while Max Osbon is the operational guru. Our payroll is…

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What the Nobel Prize in Economics means for you

The announcement of Eugene Fama as a Nobel laureate in economics was bound to happen someday, and it finally has. Fama’s pioneering research regarding how the market arrives at security prices constitutes a fundamental principle of finance. It’s also at the core of indexing. Fama was already a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business when I…

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The World According to Windham

If you are suffering from too much news (“infobesity”) and too many dire predictions (“calamity fatigue”) then the annual Windham Global Solutions client conference last week would have been a welcome break.  It was for us.  Windham, our asset allocation and risk management advisor, had a full menu of meaty topics over two days.  Here are some highlights. Windham is a…

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Small can be big

Small cap can be big We know that a typical long-term stock portfolio returns more, on average, than a typical bond portfolio. But what kind of stocks consistently outperform the broad stock market as a whole? Hint: Think smaller. 87 years Since 1926, a dollar invested in small cap stocks has grown to $18,365 – a hefty annualized return of…

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Cost of Cash

Cost of Cash Calculator Keeping a stash of cash seems to be a natural human urge. Call it a “rainy day fund” or “emergency fund.” Whatever you call it, having some cash on hand for unforeseen situations is a good idea. But is holding excess cash a good idea?  Some, yes; too much, no.  Understand the cost of stuffing money…

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5 Million Dollar Man

The next 5 million dollar man How much do you need to save and invest to accumulate $5 million dollars?  Max Osbon fired up the Excel spreadsheet to create a simple and revealing look at how to do just that. Four facts to enter Armed with four simple facts – your current age, your current investable wealth, your expected rate…

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Beware hysteria of headlines

I definitely agree with the old adage that kids say the darnedest things.  But now and then the financial media give kids a good run for their money. For instance, we’ve all seen headlines like this one: “Dow Plummets 150 Points.”  But is 150 points really a plummet? Let’s look at the stats. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovering…

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Indexing Grows Popular with the Pros

When we describe our index boutique approach to investing, people often ask: “If indexing is so great why don’t more professionals do it?” The answer is:  “They do”.  A quick look at high profile, successful professional active managers shows a significant portion of assets going the index route.  See who’s doing it. Elites do it Many endowment funds – the…

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What’s up in Europe?

In two words, cash flow.  And not just in Europe.  Record high dividend payments are a worldwide phenomenon and are occurring despite doom and gloom reports about Europe in the popular media.  Healthy dividend yields on non-US ETFs raise a good question: should you own them? Cash flow is knowable A quick scan of popular ETFs shows how rich some…

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