Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
When Experts Disagree
For the last two months it seems all we have heard about is disagreement. I am not talking about political disagreement. I am referring to investment disagreements and convincing opposing arguments put forth by experts I read, with mixed signals in the markets as well. Here is a list of the six main points of disagreement and what we are…
When News Lets You Down, Go To The Primary Sources
We live in the Age of Data. There’s an endless stream of data points on every topic, especially in the field of economics. The media and politicians regularly serve up numbers that support their point of view. If you feel it’s hard to trust these data-driven arguments, you’re right. When data is cherry-picked, omitted, conflated or obscured, any conclusions must…
Overruling Yourself
Last week the coronavirus overtook SARS in the number of deaths. The impeachment process was impugned by both sides. The Iowa voting was bungled. Party politics are more divisive and meaner than ever. In other words, we’re surrounded by a large field of negativity right now. Given this fact of life in 2020, how should investors respond to the barrage…
Routine, Complex and Innovative Investment Management
Let’s take a break from politics and global health to talk about your portfolio management. There are three necessary components of your investment management. You’re familiar with the first part, all of the routine tasks typically associated with investing. Eventually there’s a need for the second element, where advanced analysis kicks in. Forward-looking and innovation-based activities comprise the third piece….
The Math of Retirement
There are many ways to look at your financial circumstances over the course of a lifetime, but at some point we all give some thought about how well prepared we are for retirement. Will money be tight, or will we have plenty to live the life we envision? Do we need to make changes in investments, spending or expectations? Let’s…
More Spending, No Recession
Investors are always on the lookout for the next recession, because a recession can slow down or reverse portfolio appreciation for a year or two. Moreover, a recession reveals a lot of investment mistakes which no one likes to be reminded of. Here are three measures to look at when trying to determine if a recession is coming and if…
Stalemate Investing, Positively
Most years start the same way. Investors look closely at the price action during the first day, week or month of the new year. No matter which way investments go, price action in the first month is a poor indicator of future returns. Then there are politics, threats of violence around the world, and earnings reports to consider. Declaring an…
A Fantastic Investment Story
Red Notice is the incredible story of Bill Browder’s bold journey from young American investor to the largest foreign investor in Russia. This success made him a personal enemy of Russia’s most dangerous oligarchs and public officials. The details are unbelievable and the lessons valuable. The first half of the book focuses on how Bill’s intuition and curiosity led him…
Get State Owned Enterprises Out of Emerging Markets
Emerging markets are an important asset class that include major countries with massive populations like China and India. Emerging market investments have been accessible for decades, but they’ve often included state-owned enterprise (SOE) holdings — whether you’ve wanted them or not. Maybe you didn’t. State Owned Enterprises are notoriously inefficient, often conflicted and sometimes even overtly corrupt. It’s possible to…
