Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
"*" indicates required fields
Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Less Gold. More Yield.
Gold remains an important asset class in global investment markets. With 190,000 tons mined and a market price of $1200 an ounce, the market value of gold is over $7 trillion dollars. While gold is a meaningful asset class, it has become smaller compared to the rest of the market because its price has been going down since 2011. Is it time to give up on gold? We say no, and here’s why.
6 Easy Steps for Investing With Your Kids
It’s never too early to start educating your children on investing. From their younger vantage point, kids have their own set of investment advantages. This week’s article lays out an easy hands-on process to get kids thinking about investing (versus spending) and help them prepare for the day when they manage their own finances. Here’s how you can start:
Ten Years Post-Crisis, What Have We Learned?
September 2018 is the month to mark – not celebrate – the ten-year anniversary of the financial crisis. The crisis started on three specific days. First, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were put into government conservatorship on September 6th. Next, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15th. Finally, AIG was bailed out by the government on September 16. Just recalling these events can give you the chills. What have we learned since then?
Price Targets Are Obsolete: Why are they still a thing?
Apple is in the news again this week because of its Gathering Round conference where the company announces new products and upgrades. With every event like this comes a new round of price targets and buy/hold/sell recommendations from Wall Street analysts. Our question is why do they bother? Individual price targets are notoriously unreliable and can be dangerously wrong.
Peak Passive? Not so fast.
The FT ran a story this week asking if we’ve hit “peak passive.” Similar to peak oil, peak “X” refers to an asset class hitting a sort of critical mass or market saturation. It also vaguely implies that there is no more room to grow and down is the only direction possible. With millions of investors relying on portfolios of passive index ETFs, this could be a mass catastrophe in the making. Or is it? Let’s take an objective look at the perils and possibilities of passive.
Determining your liquid assets
Between boomers wrapping up careers and entrepreneurs thinking about new ones, many are considering retiring from current roles to follow other pursuits, passions and opportunities. For these folks, a critical question is how much cash to hold. Cash reserves provide a sense of security, a buffer against a challenging investment climate and dry powder for interesting one-off opportunities. How much is enough? Is there such a thing as too much? The answer is often a dynamic moving target. Here are some considerations:
The Case For India
India has been getting favorable headlines this year because its prime minister is considered progressive and because its stock market is doing well. The Indian Sensex is up 430% since 2008. India is not exactly a favorite market yet but it has been doing better than many markets in the world. Is it time to invest? Time to hold on for the long term? Let’s look at some basic investment facts about India.
The Incredible Shrinking Market
The New York Times published a feature article last week on our shrinking US stock market. It’s true that the number of publicly listed US securities has dropped from over 7,000 in 1996 to fewer than 3,800 today. That sounds like an economy that’s becoming less diverse, less innovative and less competitive. Is that really the case? Are these numbers a warning sign for investors? Let’s sort it out with some added context:
How Big is Too Big?
Apple made headlines around the world last week when it crossed the $1 trillion dollar market value level. Apple’s value now begs the question, how much higher can it go? Is $2 trillion feasible? How about $4 trillion? Or has Apple grown so large it will begin to fade? Is the trillion dollar mark a limit or a launchpad?
