Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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2024 will bring more positive novel surprises. New years always do. In 2023, it was the dramatic acceleration in AI, which touches nearly every industry, and the early stages of an answer to the obesity epidemic with GLP-1s. Here is a list of what’s on our minds going into 2024.
Bubbles Are Not Irrational
The word “bubble” can be an emotional trigger for investors, immediately stoking fear and anxiety. Pundits and economists may refer to bubbles as irrational market anomalies, but there’s much more to the story than that. Here is some context so that you can understand the investor mindsets and strategies that spawn them.
6 Reasons To Say No To News
It seems almost self-evident that whoever has the best access to current news sources gains a significant advantage as an investor. Because information is power. Or is it? The business model of the news cycle is increasingly reliant on triggering your emotional reflexes. How does today’s news help or hinder investors?
The Umbrellas Made It Rain
Can a candidate buy an election? Or can a super PAC make the purchase for him? With mid-term elections on the horizon, the effect of campaign spending on election outcomes will be big news again. It makes me wonder if running for office is a voting process or simply an auction. Does spending by candidates and PACs actually predict success? And what does this have to do with investing? Here’s what I’ve learned.
Busting The Correlation Myth
When securities move in the same direction at the same time, that’s called correlation. If all stocks are highly correlated it doesn’t really matter what you own; all stocks rise or fall on the same fickle tide. “Everything moves together,” many complain. This is a common perception these days, but is it supported by the facts? Has too much correlation killed the markets?
The Heart Behind The Writing
I put a lot of energy into the articles and blog posts written for osboncapital.com. Talk may be cheap and fleeting, but writing lasts. A well-written article can inform, clarify, educate, motivate, entertain and help you see familiar facts or ideas in a new light.
How Often Do You Check Your Portfolio?
The answer to this question can tell you a lot about a person. For many, it is “Always!” Constant market checkers mentally recalculate their net worth every few hours and look for minute-by-minute trends to inform their next trades. For others, it is “Never!” Hoping to find bliss in ignorance, never-checkers leave their assets to fend for themselves. I suggest you find a strategy somewhere between these two extremes.
4 Signs of Skin In The Game
Nassim Taleb, the author and scholar best known for The Black Swan (2007), predicted an extraordinary market event would happen because too many players had no skin in the game. They suffered no personal consequences for bad advice, mistakes and greed. His new book, Skin in the Game, drills down on this idea and helps us consider whether your advisor is really on your side.
One Month to Tax Day – 4 Questions
Many of the missteps people make related to taxes are errors of omission — simple oversights that lead to higher tax bills than necessary, or even penalties and interest. As we head into the last thirty days of the tax season here are four reminder questions to ask yourself before April 15th.
Why Do Allocations Change?
Good question and one asked frequently by experts and clients alike. When should asset allocations change in a portfolio? The when, why and how of allocation changes should be as transparent as indexing itself, and it is.
