Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Why Volatility Is Here To Stay
Eight hundred point swings in the Dow have been alarmingly regular events in the last month. Swings that large represent a 3% change in the 30 most important stocks in the United States — in one day. And it’s not just the Dow. Similar moves have been hitting the S&P 500 and stock markets outside the US. Even the benchmark 10 year US Treasury bond has been flip flopping with large price changes. Is this the new and harmless normal or a brightly flashing warning sign? Let’s start the year with a closer look at these dramatic ups and downs.
Restful Holidays To You and Yours
By now Hannukah and Christmas are over, and the New Year has yet to arrive. Amidst the ebbs and flows of markets, business and life, this window of time presents a perfect opportunity to simply, relax. Yes, one of the hardest things to do is to relax and enjoy this time of year with loved ones. At the same time, you can be grateful for all that you have – life, health, challenge, mystery, friends, companions and family. There will be plenty of time in the New Year to talk about investments in 2019 and 2020. Let’s enjoy the waning days of 2018 and celebrate them.
When Markets Say One Thing And Do Another
Many commentators on the short-term state of markets are warning that investment results could get much worse. Bond and stock markets, both domestic and international, have been testing investor patience over the last few months. The attention-hungry headlines don’t square with many of today’s realities. Here is some added context.
The second law of thermodynamics and your portfolio
Nobel prize-winning physicist and world-famous lecturer Richard Feynman may be known best by his endless cross-discipline curiosity. This curiosity and exploration into new fields resulted in many novel and useful discoveries. Expanding on the mental models theme we discussed two weeks ago and crossing disciplines into the realm of physics, this article explores the second law of thermodynamics and how it applies to your investment life.
Trade wars and your portfolio – 3 measures
War is a big word and usually cause for concern among investors. I’ll limit this article to the financial aspects of a war because this war I am talking about is overwhelmingly financial. When the word war is mentioned many older people think of the Cold War. The Cold War was much more than financial and ended decades ago. Now the phrase Trade War is in the air. How can you tell the effect on your portfolio of a Trade War?
5 Mental Models To Help You Be A Better Investor
Shane Parish isn’t yet a household name but over the last two years, he’s become one of my favorite thinkers and writers. Here are five mental models from his complete list of 109 with comments on how you can apply them to your investment thinking. The goal of this article is to help you find new answers to old questions by altering the way you look at the problem.
2018 Reasons To Be Thankful
Now is the time of year when we get a chance to step back and reflect on the ways we are grateful. Gratitude lifts, heals, comforts and puts things in perspective. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, here are two simple reasons to be thankful in 2018.
If I’m Holding Cash, Where Should It Be?
Intense market volatility over the last few months has been a good reminder that money needed in the next 3 to 24 months should not be in stocks. It should be in a safe, interest-generating investment. The first option that comes to mind is usually bank CDs with FDIC insurance. CDs, like many heavily marketed investment products, are often not the optimal choice. Here is what we are doing with cash today.
When You Are Acquired: The 3 R’s
More than 35 Boston area companies have been acquired so far this year. Almost all were privately held. When you are acquired, it’s not just a life-changing liquidity event, it’s validation of your business model and a hard-earned reward for your ideas and long hours. In the big deal, you’ll receive cash, stock and/or incentives to continue working. Then what? Based on my 30 years working with fortunate business sellers, here are three capital R’s to help you get the right kind of guidance from the right kind of advisor.
