Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Week 44: Market Caps, Interoperability, Semiconductors & Squid Games
Briefing: The market capitalization of an investment is dependent on the distribution of ownership and liquidity. Squid Game’s popularity is so powerful it spawned a new currency… that promptly went to zero. Interoperability refers to compatibility between software systems and data sets. It’s an essential component of the future of our interconnected digital world. ASML semiconductor manufacturer is likely the…
Week 43: Why Memes Matter, Brain-Computer Interface, and Driverless Progress
Briefing: Brands with large online communities that create memes have an advantage. Intangible brand value is often an unappreciated component of equity valuation. Brain-Computer Interfaces have attracted considerable VC funding since Elon Musk started Neuralink and progress is happening quickly. Amsterdam unveiled self-driving boats for its canals. The IAC, Indy Autonomous Challenge happened over this past weekend, with the winner…
Week 42: Bitcoin Futures ETF, Buy-Now-Pay-Later, Robotics Incentives
Briefing: This week’s new Bitcoin ETF invests in futures rather than actual Bitcoin. It’s an important distinction that we don’t think most people are aware of the difference. Software-based lending solutions are a natural and welcome evolution. The new leaders are early and will be dramatically better than their traditional counterparts. Increasing employment costs will lead to increasing automation. The…
Crypto Investing Announcement
Based on the continued opportunity we see within crypto assets and blockchain technologies, we are launching a crypto focused investment vehicle available to our clients. In November of 2020 we wrote a post about the updated role of bitcoin and accurately predicted the most recent bull run based on increasing adoption rates and two fundamental principles of influence: authority and social proof. We published…
Week 41: Labor Challenges, Taiwan Is A Top Risk, Crypto Announcement
Briefing: Investors should be aware of the employment trends in leading technology companies. Fewer people building the world’s biggest companies is another key driver of the increasing wealth gap. Taiwan is the most important piece of the global semiconductor supply chain by a wide margin. The tense relationship between China and Taiwan is a real risk to watch. Osbon Capital…
Week 40: Finviz Map, Pessimism Is Expensive, Supply & Demand of Stocks
Briefing: Based on its popularity, we are highlighting FinViz this week as a very useful tool for investor education. Skepticism is a really expensive habit and investors should do their best to avoid being skeptics of the space industry. Over the past 40 years, public companies purchased 8x more equity through M&A and buybacks than they have sold through IPOs…
Week 39: A Platinum Coin, Winner Takes All & Crypto Volumes
Briefing: The Treasury may issue a single $1 Trillion platinum coin to avoid the debt ceiling political circus and government shutdown. “Google” is the most popular search term on the Bing search engine, highlighting the winner-take-all nature of scalable technology businesses. Crypto exchange Binance processes over $50B in crypto derivatives transactions per day and may raise new financing at a…
Week 38: New Frontiers, Quad-Witching, Chinese Competition
Briefing: Quad-witching is impacting markets and Dec 17th is the next date to watch. Space and the Metaverse are the next frontiers for investors, creators, entrepreneurs and explorers. China will eventually need technology leadership, even if it doesn’t like its current cohort. Quad witching Financial markets are influenced by activity in the derivatives markets. Some active traders would go as…
Week 37: Shifting Risk Curves, Teaching Robots, NBA Ownership Lesson
Briefing: The risk curve is shifting further out for investors. Bonds have become extremely unattractive, especially when compared to the historically risky asset classes. AI models are learning more complicated tricks. There’s a new robot training to paint our streets. The NBA is opening ownership to PE firms with significant limitations, highlighting the importance of the owner’s mindset. Shifting Risk…
