Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Early Days, NeuroHacking, Klarman, Fast
Early Days We are still in the earliest days of generative AI tools. Much of what has been released to date is a proof of concept. One neat emergent behavior of generative AI tools is that they seem to behave more like people and less like computers or calculators. Generative AI, so far, is lacking precision and accuracy, but it…
Progress, XB100 Deep Tech List
XB100 Deep Tech List – Bessemer I enjoyed reading this list of the 100 leading deep tech companies by Bessemer Venture Partners as well as the intro letter. Bessemer is also known for maintaining the Cloud 100, the leading 100 public cloud companies. While the list is probably repetitive for many, it’s useful to be aware of, for example, the…
Henry George and Land Value Tax
Land Value Tax is a compelling and relatively unknown economic philosophy related to land taxation. Henry George popularized it in the late 1800s and fans of his work are known as Georgists. This week, we’ve decided to focus on this topic to spread awareness of Georgism as a plausible solution to our nation’s serious urban housing, inequality, budget and populist…
Winners and Waste, Federated Learning, Robotic Gardening
Mid-Year Winners The performance gap between the equal-weight S&P 500 and the regular-weight S&P 500 is on track for it’s largest gap since the metric started 30+ years ago. This indicates a growing split between haves and have-nots. The winners are obvious, they are the technology leaders with the largest balance sheets like NVidia, Meta, Google, Apple, and so on….
Inflation, NVidia, FedNow
Inflation Truflation’s US inflation metrics fell to 2.98% this week. This is a decent proxy for the direction of the CPI and PCE, the official government inflation statistics used to set policy. I’ve seen a lot of complaints in the media about prices still being high. An obvious but important note is that falling inflation does not translate to falling…
Inflation, The Price of Time, PSA for HSA
Global Inflation Over the past week, the real-time US inflation tracker Truflation has dropped another .5% to 3.36%. The UK is still stuck with high inflation, with official numbers at 10.1% and the Truflation figure at 15.28% (down from 22%). The bad spots are still Argentina with an eye-watering 109% inflation rate and Turkey at 44%. The rest of the…
Inflation, Social Buying, AI Level-Set
CPI Inflation The trend is your friend. Thankfully yesterday’s CPI came in just a bit lower than last month’s at 4.9%. From a peak of 9.1% in June ‘22, each of the last 10 reports has ticked progressively lower. The Fed’s rate hikes aim to lower inflation to 2%, which is still far away despite considerable progress. The rate hikes…
Fed, Yield Curve, Honey Pot
Fed & Yield Curve The Fed raised rates yesterday to 5.25% for what will likely be its last rate hike. It’s hard to see what would push the Fed to increase rates even further from here. The next CPI report will be out on May 10th followed by June 13th. The slow monthly periodicity is not helping, but that’s what…
Fed Update, Documentary, AI, Reserve Banking Rant
Fed Updates In all likelihood, the Fed will raise interest rates from 5% to 5.25% next week for their May meeting. The next CPI inflation report is on May 10th. The hope is that inflation continues to tick down again, widening the gap between the Fed Funds and inflation and setting the stage for the Fed to cut rates eventually….
