Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Week 51: Inspiring Workers, Giving and Gratitude
Inspiring workers: wages and labor participation There’s a lingering question in the US around unemployment, and many wonder how long we can have both a shortage of workers and a relatively high unemployment rate. In the US, we peaked at 158.7mm workers in February 2020, just before the onset of COVID. Today we are back to the 155.1mm US worker…
Week 50: Terra Luna, Stablecoins and Quad Witching
Briefing: The Quad Witching is tomorrow, Friday the 17th, and it typically brings volatility in the weeks leading up. It’s a reminder of the massive derivatives market and its effect on market prices. | Stablecoins received a shout-out at the Federal Reserve Press Conference. | The most interesting emerging stablecoin is $UST powered by Terra Luna out of South Korea….
Week 49: The Infinite Machine, A Different Look at NFTs and Market Selloffs
Briefing: The Infinite Machine about the creation of Ethereum is a must-read. | NFT is an overused term, so we’re writing about it this week to add clarity to the underlying principles that make this technology valuable. | Market selloffs happen regularly. As long as underlying fundamentals haven’t changed, it’s usually a buying opportunity. The Infinite Machine I recommend a…
Week 48: Constitution Update, Don’t Fight The Fed, Metaverse Growth
Briefing: The ConstitutionDAO did not win the Sotheby’s US Constitution bid, but found a way to win anyway. | Don’t fight the Fed is an investment heuristic worth listening to. | The Metaverse continues on its growth trajectory. ConstitutionDAO Update Since week 46, you probably saw the result that ConstitutionDao did not win their bid to buy a physical copy…
Week 46: The US Constitution, Tracking Web3.0 Hacks, and so on.
Briefing: A discord channel raised $30m+ in four days to buy the only privately held copy of the US Constitution from Sotheby’s, foreshadowing a world where DAOs with passionate leadership gain significant power. Tracking frauds, failures and security breaches in Web3.0. The largest hack to date was returned by the hacker. Don’t get carried away with parabolic commodity prices. They…
Week 45: Web3.0 Evolutions
We’re covering Web3.0 this week because the space is evolving rapidly and we want to mark the progress and evolution for our readers. This article covers some of the most notable and relevant updates that we think everyone will find valuable as we look into the future of Web3.0. Skepticism is an expensive habit It feels smart to look at…
Week 44: Market Caps, Interoperability, Semiconductors & Squid Games
Briefing: The market capitalization of an investment is dependent on the distribution of ownership and liquidity. Squid Game’s popularity is so powerful it spawned a new currency… that promptly went to zero. Interoperability refers to compatibility between software systems and data sets. It’s an essential component of the future of our interconnected digital world. ASML semiconductor manufacturer is likely the…
Week 43: Why Memes Matter, Brain-Computer Interface, and Driverless Progress
Briefing: Brands with large online communities that create memes have an advantage. Intangible brand value is often an unappreciated component of equity valuation. Brain-Computer Interfaces have attracted considerable VC funding since Elon Musk started Neuralink and progress is happening quickly. Amsterdam unveiled self-driving boats for its canals. The IAC, Indy Autonomous Challenge happened over this past weekend, with the winner…
Week 42: Bitcoin Futures ETF, Buy-Now-Pay-Later, Robotics Incentives
Briefing: This week’s new Bitcoin ETF invests in futures rather than actual Bitcoin. It’s an important distinction that we don’t think most people are aware of the difference. Software-based lending solutions are a natural and welcome evolution. The new leaders are early and will be dramatically better than their traditional counterparts. Increasing employment costs will lead to increasing automation. The…
