Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
Fed Actions and The Story of Luna
Fed Actions On Monday we sent a note to all clients regarding current markets. Markets in 2022 have fallen fast. If you’re feeling down about your portfolio, you’re not alone. The Venture Capital Index tracking the portfolios of leading VCs is down over 55% in the last six months. The most successful modern hedge fund, Tiger Global, has lost 2/3rds…
FTX x SALT and Crypto’s Infrastructure Age
A significant crypto conference, Crypto Bahamas, was hosted last week by SALT, the crypto exchange FTX and FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. The SALT investment conference is an influential annual event for the traditional finance industry. This joint conference marked a big step forward in the ongoing merger between crypto and conventional institutional finance. While crypto is roughly 13 years old,…
Week 16: Lithium, New Collar, Bubbles
Briefing: Lithium prices have spiked dramatically in the past year. | The presence of New Collar Workers is a positive sign that our work culture is adapting to allow for upward mobility. | Signs of bubbles in venture capital are also a sign that we are hard at work solving complex problems. Lithium Batteries The price of Lithium provides us…
Week 15: Better Than It Looks, New Crypto Projects
Briefing: Declinism is chic, but things are better than they look. | Hivemapper cameras allow drivers to earn Solana-based HONEY token in exchange for providing fresh maps of local streets. It’s Better Than It Looks John shared a great book with the team recently titled “It’s Better Than It Looks” by Gregg Easterbrook (2018). I wholeheartedly agree with Michael Sherman’s…
Week 14: AI Progress, Solar Innovation, Axie Crypto Hack
Briefing: OpenAI completed an impressive next step forward for AI with a tool that generates detailed complex images based on text-only prompts. | Stanford researchers were able to create a solar panel that generates power at night via geothermal effects. | Crypto-related financial crimes are easier for law enforcement to track. | The Fed reloading their tool kit can be…
Week 13: Narratives, Decentralized Telecom & Valuations
Briefing: Narratives drive markets. Sometimes the news is so persistently negative that people forget that good news is possible. | The decentralized telecom network Helium raised $200m after growing its network of active routers by 128% over the past six months. | Valuations in US equity markets are at, to slightly below, the 10-year average. Narratives Narratives have a big…
Week 12: Real Estate Woes, Uptrends and Building Faster
Briefing: Investors are buying too many houses while active listings are at record lows. | After a long sell-off markets are likely back in an upward trend. | 50 years ago we were much faster at building physical infrastructure. Real Estate Woes A current story familiar to everyone is the difficulty of purchasing a home in 2022. The numbers behind…
Week 11: Buy Strike, Automation and Cybersecurity, Nuclear Shipping Containers
Briefing: The Fed hiked rates by .25% yesterday for the first hike since 2018. | Despite volatile price swings, we’re still very much in an innovation boom. | In a big step forward for clean energy, Radiant has secured financing to create portable nuclear fission reactors. The Fed Makes Its First Move Yesterday, the Fed meeting resulted in a .25% hike…
Week 10: Russia, Patience and The Future
Briefing: Managing risk for Russia & Ukraine | Patience pays when waiting for bear markets to end. | David Friedberg’s new product Cana has the potential to turn the beverage industry into a decentralized platform business. Russia & Ukraine Today marks two weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s been helpful to me to consider this under a framework…
