RedNote If you want to make something extremely popular, ban it! One of the most popular apps in the US, TikTok, is scheduled to be banned as early as Sunday. According to Polymarket, as of Wednesday evening, there is a 72% probability that TikTok will be banned by May. The premise of the ban is simple. Don’t allow Chinese companies…

AI continues to be a central economic growth engine in 2025. Microsoft plans to invest $80 billion in its AI infrastructure this year alone. The carrot dangled in front of us all during this AI emergence period is the future state known as AGI, Artificial General Intelligence. I wanted to spend some time defining AGI because it’s not clear what…

2025 Commentary and Outlook   Most investors consider Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor one of the most important investment books ever written. It inspired Warren Buffett’s career and created generations of value-investing disciples. However, many young investors today are thoroughly disappointed by this classic framework. What’s underappreciated about this book is the market environment in which it was written. When…

As we approach 2025, here are some questions to consider about markets, policy shifts and technological progress:   Will Milei continue his win streak? I was a bit concerned to read this article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph about Javier Milei’s currency strategy in Argentina. Ambrose points out that for Milei to be a genuinely free market actor, he…

Deflationary Forces   Diamonds Despite being identical, there is still a significant price difference between natural and lab-grown diamonds. Lab-grown diamond supplies are so high that the average 1-carat round diamond is just $679 vs. $3728 for an identical natural diamond. How cheap can a 1-carat round diamond get? Probably cheaper than $679. Eventually, the price will trend to the…

Weather Google’s DeepMind had two major releases this week. The first focuses on weather predictions. I wrote recently that I don’t think we are close to running out of data to train AI models, and the weather is a perfect example. This latest model was trained on 40 years of wind speed, temperature and pressure at various altitudes. Weather is…

DOGE and GDP Changes in liquidity at the government level significantly impact market returns. It’s challenging and often nearly impossible to predict those liquidity changes unless they are clearly announced and followed through. In 2020, an emergency $10T in stimulus added to US liquidity set off a massive and rapid bull market followed by an inflationary period. In 2022, rate…

Regulation and Markets Markets respond well to the resolution of uncertainty, especially in the face of a potentially delayed or contested result. Consistent with previous Republican outcomes, US equity markets responded positively to the Trump Vance outcome. The deregulation wave is likely the most potent positive factor for the majority of the stock market over the next year. The business…

I recently read “Superabundance” at the recommendation of a friend who shares my optimism and enthusiasm for technology. Co-author Marian Tupy was generous enough to take some time to discuss the book with me. “Superabundance” explores how human innovation leads to increased resources and better living standards, challenging the traditional views on scarcity and global population growth. Simon-Ehrlich wager The…