Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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10 Year, Bessent and DOGE
When Trump and Secretary of The Treasury Scott Bessent talk about reducing rates or rates that need to come down, they are referring to the 10 year Treasury rate more than the short term rate that the Fed sets. As a quick refresher, the Federal Reserve meets eight times per year to adjust short term interest rates. By comparison, market…
Wealth Fund, Non-System
US Sovereign Wealth Fund President Trump recently announced an executive order to create a US Sovereign Wealth Fund. I don’t think this is necessarily a bad idea, but I don’t think it’s a particularly good idea either. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is the world’s largest thanks to surplus revenues from its oil and gas industry. Typically sovereign wealth funds are…
DeepReflection, Private Credit, Local AI
DeepSeek Reflection Straight to the point: competition is a good thing. This DeepSeek episode has re-established a certain level of confidence that we can improve AI models through algorithmic breakthroughs. We don’t have to rely only on astronomically increasing budgets, like $500B for Stargate. Knowledgeable people have said the model did not cost $6m and was not trained on old…
Accidental Crypto Success
Many people are rightfully upset by the recent Trump and Melania meme token launches. I wanted to chime in on this discussion since this is a space I follow closely. Trump has created branded memorabilia in every possible category for decades. He’s branded dozens of golf clubs and buildings. I lived in Trump International a long time ago. He’s also…
RedNote, Post-Election Crypto, Carter
RedNote If you want to make something extremely popular, ban it! One of the most popular apps in the US, TikTok, is scheduled to be banned as early as Sunday. According to Polymarket, as of Wednesday evening, there is a 72% probability that TikTok will be banned by May. The premise of the ban is simple. Don’t allow Chinese companies…
Defining AGI
AI continues to be a central economic growth engine in 2025. Microsoft plans to invest $80 billion in its AI infrastructure this year alone. The carrot dangled in front of us all during this AI emergence period is the future state known as AGI, Artificial General Intelligence. I wanted to spend some time defining AGI because it’s not clear what…
2025 Commentary and Outlook
2025 Commentary and Outlook Most investors consider Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor one of the most important investment books ever written. It inspired Warren Buffett’s career and created generations of value-investing disciples. However, many young investors today are thoroughly disappointed by this classic framework. What’s underappreciated about this book is the market environment in which it was written. When…
Questions for 2025
As we approach 2025, here are some questions to consider about markets, policy shifts and technological progress: Will Milei continue his win streak? I was a bit concerned to read this article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Telegraph about Javier Milei’s currency strategy in Argentina. Ambrose points out that for Milei to be a genuinely free market actor, he…
Deflationary Forces, Bitcoin Indexed
Deflationary Forces Diamonds Despite being identical, there is still a significant price difference between natural and lab-grown diamonds. Lab-grown diamond supplies are so high that the average 1-carat round diamond is just $679 vs. $3728 for an identical natural diamond. How cheap can a 1-carat round diamond get? Probably cheaper than $679. Eventually, the price will trend to the…
