Insights on markets, emergent trends, history, innovation, risk management, global economics, strategy, policy, and other topics that catch our attention. Inspired by ongoing research, conversations and events. Written and edited by Osbon Capital Management and published every Thursday morning.
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Too much time is spent talking about price. Fundamentals are ultimately what drive equity prices higher over time. To say this another way, a company’s stock price can’t continue to rise unless it continues to be successful. The famous quote by Warren Buffett is, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run (...)
AI and Coding
What makes AI so fascinating is how flexible it is and how it can be applied successfully to an endless number of use cases. In the past, I’ve asked ChatGPT to create comprehensive meal plans with recipes for each meal and corresponding shopping lists. I also use it as a personal trainer and to answer general health questions. Recently, I’ve…
FDA Approved AI & Inflation
AI Health Care In April, we wrote about evidence that AI was having a positive impact on overall productivity. Intuitively, it makes sense that AI would enhance productivity, but in practice, it’s difficult to quantify results. I recently connected with Michael Abramoff of Digital Diagnostics to discuss this topic. His product, LumineticsCore, was the first FDA-approved AI diagnostics tool in…
NVDA and Private Credit Part 2
NVidia + AI Growth Jumping right in this week. I’ve clearly been far too risk-averse when it comes to Nvidia. I’ve been concerned that their margins will be eroded by competitive forces like in-house design at Meta, Google, Amazon or Microsoft. While that may happen eventually, that’s not something that this market is concerned with at the moment. I’ve started…
Private Credit – More Context & Updates
Private Credit – More Context & Updates One of my continuous motivations for writing each week about markets and investing is to provide the context where it is lacking. Media machines are built on buzzwords and emotion and money is one of those highly emotional topics where the extremes get the clicks. Credit is typically not an extreme topic and…
Khanmigo AI, Public vs Private
Khanmigo AI Example Many of you are already familiar with the online education resource Khan Academy. It’s one of my favorite educational organizations. In the mid-2000s, Salman Khan’s YouTube videos on math education went viral. The Gates Foundation asked him to focus full-time on developing his content into an accessible, high-quality online education platform as a philanthropic endeavor. I remember…
GameStop and Fraud PSA
Social Organized Buying – Cult Behavior The classic meme stock GameStop is back in the narrative this week. I’ve seen many articles about GameStop expressing concern, disbelief, valuation advice, cautionary tales and anger over market manipulation. The power of Twitter influencers is not fully appreciated. Twitter was responsible for accelerating the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Keep this math in…
Stablecoins, Argentina, Gemini
Stablecoins & Regulation The sentiment surrounding crypto in the US is still quite negative for several reasons. Many people are too embarrassed by proxy to be associated. The FTX implosion is still in recent memory, and CZ from Binance was just sentenced to four months in jail. The only positive growth for crypto in the US has been the launch…
24/7 Markets, Immigration, Quantum Primer
24/7 Markets This week, there was a big push in the media by various parties to convert the stock market into a 24 hour market. Crypto, forex and certain futures markets already operate on a 24-hour trading schedule. Markets often move more when they are technically “closed”. Earnings are the prime example of this, where companies wait for the market…
AI Speed, Nuclear, Quantum
AI Speed AI continues to develop globally at an extremely rapid pace. AI and LLMs are software-based, which means they can be iterated on, and updates can be deployed in real-time. It’s a challenge to keep up with even weekly AI-related developments. This talk from April 5th with Eric Schmidt is worth listening to. Here are a few takeaways: The…
