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John Osbon's posts

Weekly Articles by Osbon Capital Management:

Consensus Is Rare

Disagreement is essential for functional markets

Oct 15, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

It’s difficult to get a broad idea across in one headline. When it is done in the investment media, the bias almost always skews negative, mostly for dramatic effect. If all indicators were bad, everyone would want to sell and there would be no buyers. With positive consensus, on the other hand, there would be no sellers. A broad and balanced take on the market, with both positives and negative...

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A Sample Of One – Politics and Investing

What The Markets Don’t Care About

Oct 2, 2019 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

For the second time in twenty years, talk of impeachment is in the air. Like last time, impeachment probably will happen, likely followed quickly by acquittal. The whole show could be over by the end of the year, according to the Speaker of the House. The markets have greeted this news with a giant yawn. Why isn't impeachment more of an event for markets? What are markets saying about the curre...

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Investment Anniversaries: What We Can Learn from Historic Days

Sep 18, 2019 - John Osbon ( 4 mins to read)

Not all investment days are created equal. There’s something about the start of Fall today that brings anniversaries to mind. Many people believe August, September and October are cursed times to invest, that stock plunges are inevitable and imminent. A closer look shows that important anniversaries are spread randomly throughout the year; surges and crashes know no calendar. Let’s take a close...

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MIT Engineers Football

Sep 3, 2019 - John Osbon ( 1 minute to read)

As we turn the corner into the fall season, an important New England fall tradition is the college football game. This Saturday, the MIT Engineers will play against Carnegie Mellon at the Henry G. Steinbrenner '27 Stadium and Roberts Field. Since 2010, the MIT Engineers football team has had 5 winning seasons. In 2014, the team won its first conference title and made it to the second round of the Division III national tournament. During the 2018 season, the Engineers' 9-2 season ended in a...

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100-Year Bonds for the United States

Better to Issue Than to Own

Sep 3, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

The US Treasury has been considering issuing 100-year bonds for some time. Based on recent comments by the US Treasury Secretary this may actually happen this year. These are unusual monetary times that allow the government to lower its financing costs. But what are the implications for US individual investors? Do bonds due in 2120 make sense for you? Current long-term rates in the US For exp...

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The Almighty Dollar

Dollar Strength Benefits Investors

Aug 26, 2019 - John Osbon ( 4 mins to read)

Heading into the final third of the investment year there are few sure things for investors to count on. One sure thing, however, is the US dollar. It has been appreciating slightly for years, and has been strong even though the US economy would be doing better with a slightly weaker dollar. Why do we believe dollar strength will persist? The only game in town The major currencies competing f...

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Stocks Are Alive and Kicking

Investors Can Keep Investing in Stocks

Aug 19, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

Forty years ago a Business Week cover story announced the "Death of Equities." The Dow was at 867. In the years since, as the Dow has risen 30x, we’ve seen other forecasts for the tragic demise of stocks, all wrong. In 1979, the doomsayers pointed to inflation and high taxes as the forces that would kill stocks. Healthy skepticism is valuable but consuming too much media-driven skepticism can h...

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Look at What They Do, Not What They Say

Positive news out of Congress contrary to the major headlines

Aug 6, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

One piece of good news got buried in last week’s falling stock prices and the rush to safety in the bond market. This Bloomberg headline from last Friday says it best: Trump Has Signed Budget and Debt-Limit Legislation. Why is this such good news and what impact does it have on your financial and investment life? Aside from the messy political rhetoric, here’s what happened and here’s how we ca...

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A History Lesson from Ray Dalio

A look into the past investment decades and where we are today

Jul 24, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

Ray Dalio published his “Paradigm Shifts” on July 17. I recommend it for any investor who wants an intelligent, dispassionate history of investing broken down by decade. Ray Dalio and Bridgewater, the hedge fund he founded, have the money and the track record to back up his assertions. Is another paradigm shift happening now? What does Ray Dalio have to say about paradigms? Dalio says that “u...

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