John Osbon's Posts

Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin said on April 19th that it will be months, not years, before the US economy is back to its previous strength. He has a big hand in making that happen. The Federal Reserve and the government have introduced record stimulus packages in record time, and clearly they are not finished. In the face of…

Daily global oil demand was 100 million barrels per day in 2019 and was expected to be slightly more in 2020. In the new COVID economy, daily demand is difficult to determine although it is clearly significantly lower. Some say it is 77 million barrels per day. Some say it is much lower, questioning who is driving cars and who…

Since we have a large amount of cash in client accounts it’s natural that we are looking for signs of when to buy again. It’s important that these signs are real and measurable. There are currently 25 indicators on our internal list in 5 different categories and the list is growing daily. In this article I will mention the major…

This week we are writing about new developments in Covid-19 and worldwide markets, as there are many. Covid-19 is negatively affecting markets this week because of the uncertainty about when new outbreaks will stop. Over the weekend, a new market – oil – was significantly affected by an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, rates in the US,…

For the last two months it seems all we have heard about is disagreement. I am not talking about political disagreement. I am referring to investment disagreements and convincing opposing arguments put forth by experts I read, with mixed signals in the markets as well. Here is a list of the six main points of disagreement and what we are…

Last week the coronavirus overtook SARS in the number of deaths. The impeachment process was impugned by both sides. The Iowa voting was bungled. Party politics are more divisive and meaner than ever. In other words, we’re surrounded by a large field of negativity right now. Given this fact of life in 2020, how should investors respond to the barrage…

Investors are always on the lookout for the next recession, because a recession can slow down or reverse portfolio appreciation for a year or two. Moreover, a recession reveals a lot of investment mistakes which no one likes to be reminded of. Here are three measures to look at when trying to determine if a recession is coming and if…

Most years start the same way. Investors look closely at the price action during the first day, week or month of the new year. No matter which way investments go, price action in the first month is a poor indicator of future returns. Then there are politics, threats of violence around the world, and earnings reports to consider. Declaring an…

Emerging markets are an important asset class that include major countries with massive populations like China and India. Emerging market investments have been accessible for decades, but they’ve often included state-owned enterprise (SOE) holdings — whether you’ve wanted them or not. Maybe you didn’t. State Owned Enterprises are notoriously inefficient, often conflicted and sometimes even overtly corrupt. It’s possible to…