Investment Management

The Crude Story of Oil

Don’t Be Misled By Dividend Yields

Apr 8, 2020 - John Osbon ( 9 mins to read)

Daily global oil demand was 100 million barrels per day in 2019 and was expected to be slightly more in 2020. In the new COVID economy, daily demand is difficult to determine although it is clearly significantly lower. Some say it is 77 million barrels per day. Some say it is much lower, questioning who is driving cars and who is riding in airplanes. Further, Saudi Arabia and Russia are in a pr...

Not So Fast, Major Obstacles Remain

Apr 1, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 8 mins to read)

As of late Wednesday bulls and bears can take their pick from a wide menu of opinions. Bulls say a vaccine is coming and the curve is flattening. Bears point to record Fed and government packages that carry a huge cost. The bears, like Jeff Gundlach and Howard Marks, come from the bond market side. Naturally, they see much more selling and unprecedented intervention to stabilize markets. The bu...

Buying Signs In An Uncertain World

Imagine the Unthinkable

Mar 25, 2020 - John Osbon ( 8 mins to read)

Since we have a large amount of cash in client accounts it’s natural that we are looking for signs of when to buy again. It’s important that these signs are real and measurable. There are currently 25 indicators on our internal list in 5 different categories and the list is growing daily. In this article I will mention the major event in each category since those are the ones none of us has exp...

Turbulence Expected or Unexpected

Preparation and strategy prevails

Mar 11, 2020 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

This week we are writing about new developments in Covid-19 and worldwide markets, as there are many. Covid-19 is negatively affecting markets this week because of the uncertainty about when new outbreaks will stop. Over the weekend, a new market – oil – was significantly affected by an oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, rates in the US, the highest of any developed market, ...

When Experts Disagree

Warren Buffett Pulls His Punch

Feb 26, 2020 - John Osbon ( 7 mins to read)

For the last two months it seems all we have heard about is disagreement. I am not talking about political disagreement. I am referring to investment disagreements and convincing opposing arguments put forth by experts I read, with mixed signals in the markets as well. Here is a list of the six main points of disagreement and what we are doing about them. Six Points of Disagreement 1. Are...

When News Lets You Down, Go To The Primary Sources

Feb 19, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 7 mins to read)

We live in the Age of Data. There’s an endless stream of data points on every topic, especially in the field of economics. The media and politicians regularly serve up numbers that support their point of view. If you feel it’s hard to trust these data-driven arguments, you’re right. When data is cherry-picked, omitted, conflated or obscured, any conclusions must be treated skeptically. That’s w...

Overruling Yourself

Learn From Your Failures

Feb 11, 2020 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)

Last week the coronavirus overtook SARS in the number of deaths. The impeachment process was impugned by both sides. The Iowa voting was bungled. Party politics are more divisive and meaner than ever. In other words, we’re surrounded by a large field of negativity right now. Given this fact of life in 2020, how should investors respond to the barrage of bad news? Markets don’t seem to be reacti...

Routine, Complex and Innovative Investment Management

The three tiers of managing wealth

Feb 4, 2020 - Max Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

Let’s take a break from politics and global health to talk about your portfolio management. There are three necessary components of your investment management. You're familiar with the first part, all of the routine tasks typically associated with investing. Eventually there’s a need for the second element, where advanced analysis kicks in. Forward-looking and innovation-based activities compri...

More Spending, No Recession

Consumers Rule the Economy

Jan 22, 2020 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)

Investors are always on the lookout for the next recession, because a recession can slow down or reverse portfolio appreciation for a year or two. Moreover, a recession reveals a lot of investment mistakes which no one likes to be reminded of. Here are three measures to look at when trying to determine if a recession is coming and if any portfolio adjustments may be needed. More money in con...