Treasuries, Patience, Bits
Sep 28, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 5 mins to read)
Treasuries Treasury yields are drawing attention now that they yield between a 2-4% risk-free rate of return. Treasury Bills (TBills) are liquid and commonly used by financial professionals, but most people are only vaguely familiar with what they are and how they work. For example, Warren Buffett keeps Berkshire Hathaway’s cash in T-Bills. We last used TBills in 2018, when rates were briefly ...
READ MORE ›
The Fed, Lithium, Merge
Sep 21, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 5 mins to read)
The Fed As expected, the Fed raised rates yesterday by .75% to bring the Fed Funds rate to its highest since 2007. As of now, futures markets expect another .75% hike in November to bring the rate to 4% and a peak of 4.75% by March 2023. Commodity prices continue to fall, which will help bring down inflation numbers. Many of those commodity prices will be negative by March, except for housing ...
READ MORE ›
Inflation and Aftershocks
Sep 14, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 4 mins to read)
Notes on Inflation Next week brings the Sept 21st Fed rate hike, which is expected to be 75bps. Former Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers has been outspoken about the reasons for a 100bps hike, namely that we need to be more aggressive because inflation changes are reacting too slowly, if at all. Either way, this next hike brings the Fed funds rate to 3.25%, the highest level since 2008...
READ MORE ›
The Dollar, Population and Productivity
Sep 7, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 6 mins to read)
The Dollar The US dollar has soared in value recently to a multi-decade peak. The Euro is at parity for the first time in twenty years and the British Pound is getting closer to parity, something that happened only once for a very brief period in the 80’s. There are big shifts happening in all markets, and the currency market is no exception. As of today, we are unlikely to see a full yie...
READ MORE ›
The Fed, DNA Sequencing, More AI Developments
Aug 31, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 7 mins to read)
Don't Fight The Fed It’s an important time to practice investment patience. September brings another CPI release (Sept 13) followed by a Fed rate decision (Sept 21). The Fed has said many times they will continue to tighten until the inflation rate comes down. For now, we can get an early peek at the inflation numbers that will arrive at the Fed by looking at commodity markets. Notably, i...
READ MORE ›
Inflation Update, Realistic Energy Transition, Stablecoins
Aug 17, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 9 mins to read)
Inflation Update The next Fed rate hike on September 21 depends on inflation metrics. One place to get an early peek at inflation is in commodity markets movements: Gasoline is down -35% from its peak in June, but still up y/y. Oil is down -20% from the high in June but still up 40% over the past year. Lumber, one of my favorite markets, is now officially negative y/y. Copper i...
READ MORE ›
Inflation, Pivots, XPrize
Aug 10, 2022 - Max Osbon ( 6 mins to read)
Inflation Last week we wrote about five key economic dates to keep a close eye on. The first, yesterday’s CPI inflation print, did not disappoint. Year over year, CPI inflation ticked down from 9.1% to 8.5%, and the monthly inflation was flat. About a month ago, we wrote about commodity market prices like oil, copper, wheat and corn falling roughly 30% from their highs. It takes time for marke...
READ MORE ›
The Budget, Key Dates, Recession
Aug 3, 2022 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)
Important Dates Ahead The Fed has said its actions will be data-dependent. We will all be watching closely when the next two (CPI) Consumer Price Index readings come out as well as the next (PCE) Personal Consumption Expenditure Index results. The PCE is a Fed favorite because they feel it is a more accurate representation of inflation. The next Fed rate decision will give us another point of ...
READ MORE ›