The Big Debt Crisis Article
Dec 3, 2019 - Max Osbon ( 8 mins to read)
Without debt, the majority of people would never be able to own a home. Companies would struggle to build data centers and manufacturing plants. Governments wouldn’t be able to build subway systems, hospitals or highways. No debt means no growth. Still, there are limits. Too much debt, poorly managed, leads to disasters. With this in mind, Ray Dalio and his firm Bridgewater published a massive ...
READ MORE ›
Demographics Are Fundamental To Investing
Check the basics on the people behind your portfolio
Nov 20, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)
Andy Kessler wrote a great WSJ article on Monday about China and demographics, called “Old Age Will Put China To Rest”. It made me remember how excited we were at Morgan Stanley 35 years ago when we started to collect demographic data outside the United States. Today, in 2019, our access to demographic data has grown exponentially. It's important we use it. Better Data Access Demographic data...
READ MORE ›
The Go-To-Market Economy
Go-To-Market companies keep our economy growing
Oct 30, 2019 - John Osbon ( 7 mins to read)
What exactly is a go-to-market (GTM) company? A GTM company is intensely focused on creating new and innovative strategies to attract new customers. Rather than building new technology or new service models these companies don’t have to have the latest and greatest offering to attract new business. In order to be viable, they have to have a reasonable path to profitability, typically by achievi...
READ MORE ›
A Sample Of One – Politics and Investing
What The Markets Don’t Care About
Oct 2, 2019 - John Osbon ( 6 mins to read)
For the second time in twenty years, talk of impeachment is in the air. Like last time, impeachment probably will happen, likely followed quickly by acquittal. The whole show could be over by the end of the year, according to the Speaker of the House. The markets have greeted this news with a giant yawn. Why isn't impeachment more of an event for markets? What are markets saying about the curre...
READ MORE ›
Investment Anniversaries: What We Can Learn from Historic Days
Sep 18, 2019 - John Osbon ( 4 mins to read)
Not all investment days are created equal. There’s something about the start of Fall today that brings anniversaries to mind. Many people believe August, September and October are cursed times to invest, that stock plunges are inevitable and imminent. A closer look shows that important anniversaries are spread randomly throughout the year; surges and crashes know no calendar. Let’s take a close...
READ MORE ›
Financial Repair Continues
It's Fannie and Freddie's Turn
Sep 11, 2019 - Max Osbon ( 4 mins to read)
Our two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been in the news this month with positive comments. Their stocks and other securities have responded with a sharp jump, indicating hope that we will return to a healthy mortgage market and get the government largely out of the mortgage business. The securities are officially worthless but speculators are betting that they will be worth a...
READ MORE ›
Stocks Are Alive and Kicking
Investors Can Keep Investing in Stocks
Aug 19, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)
Forty years ago a Business Week cover story announced the "Death of Equities." The Dow was at 867. In the years since, as the Dow has risen 30x, we’ve seen other forecasts for the tragic demise of stocks, all wrong. In 1979, the doomsayers pointed to inflation and high taxes as the forces that would kill stocks. Healthy skepticism is valuable but consuming too much media-driven skepticism can h...
READ MORE ›
Look at What They Do, Not What They Say
Positive news out of Congress contrary to the major headlines
Aug 6, 2019 - John Osbon ( 5 mins to read)
One piece of good news got buried in last week’s falling stock prices and the rush to safety in the bond market. This Bloomberg headline from last Friday says it best: Trump Has Signed Budget and Debt-Limit Legislation. Why is this such good news and what impact does it have on your financial and investment life? Aside from the messy political rhetoric, here’s what happened and here’s how we ca...
READ MORE ›
Too Concentrated in One Stock?
Advantages For Holders Of Large Single Positions