Investment Management

Keeping track of megatrends is a valuable investment exercise to practice on a regular basis. Megatrends are not often covered accurately or with full context by CNBC or the front page of the WSJ. Daily financial media is incentivized less to broadly inform and more to create an immediate emotional reaction. These trends happen slowly until they become obvious and…

The first generation ‘1G’ wireless telecommunications standards began in the 1980s. Each subsequent “G” refers to a new decade of updated minimum industry standards. 2G was the 1990s, 3G was the 2000s, and so on. By the end of the current decade, we’ll be talking about 6G and the latest and greatest standards for the 2030’s. Since 5G is often…

Last week, the Biden Administration released its 2022 budget for the US Government. Along with many details about how the $6+ trillion budget is allocated, there is a table covering their assumptions including GDP growth and interest rate changes. Given the government has considerable controls to help turn these assumptions into reality, let’s take a closer look at our government’s…

Since economics and the world at large are intimately linked, it’s useful to pull information and insight from a variety of resources. Non-zero-sum examples in history, complex system science, disruptive innovation, and an interesting set of business stories are the subject of this week’s article. Here are two books, two podcasts and a newsletter that we found to be interesting…

A typical suburban family is more sensitive to gas prices than a city resident. A contractor is more sensitive to lumber prices than a software programmer. What you consume changes your inflationary experience. If you are looking to buy a home or send kids to college you might complain about inflation more than a retiree whose house has been paid…

Checking In On The State of Crypto The past 12 months of cryptocurrency growth has minted an astonishing number of new millionaires and billionaires faster than any point in modern history. We wrote back in November last year that social proof and adoption rates are the primary drivers of crypto returns. That’s still true today. Recent reports suggest that 46…

The lumber futures chart has been one of the most interesting economic price charts to watch over the past year. Lumber prices in the futures market are based on random length construction boards like 2x4s. Since 1978, the price has bounced between $200 and $400, with a brief all-time high of $600 in 2018. However, over the past year, the…

Employment rates, financial support by the US government, debt levels and savings rates are crucial markers of economic health. Sometimes it’s better to skip the front pages of Axios, WSJ, or Financial Times, and go directly to the source to let the numbers speak for themselves. Going directly to the primary sources is a great habit that can help filter…

Value vs. growth is a long-standing debate within the investment profession. For decades, growth critics have pointed to outrageous valuations while voicing uncertainty about future growth prospects. On the other hand, value critics have argued that it’s worth paying higher prices for leading-edge businesses. Over the last year, this debate has become the topic du jour and both parties acknowledge…