Investment Management

Nothing is more central to our economy than competition. Competition rewards innovation, smart investments and cost control. We see competition between local restaurants and between global giants like Amazon and FedEx. We also see — and benefit from — competition between divergent ideas and business methods. In the investment world, the competition between stock pickers and indexers has been raging…

As we enter the final month of the final year of the decade, investors face the eternal question: how much should I have in stocks at this point? As a start on that answer, we must acknowledge that thinking about stocks as one asset class really is an oversimplification. I suggest we look first at a subset of the stock…

Without debt, the majority of people would never be able to own a home. Companies would struggle to build data centers and manufacturing plants. Governments wouldn’t be able to build subway systems, hospitals or highways. No debt means no growth. Still, there are limits. Too much debt, poorly managed, leads to disasters. With this in mind, Ray Dalio and his firm…

Andy Kessler wrote a great WSJ article on Monday about China and demographics, called “Old Age Will Put China To Rest”. It made me remember how excited we were at Morgan Stanley 35 years ago when we started to collect demographic data outside the United States. Today, in 2019, our access to demographic data has grown exponentially. It’s important we…

What exactly is a go-to-market (GTM) company? A GTM company is intensely focused on creating new and innovative strategies to attract new customers. Rather than building new technology or new service models these companies don’t have to have the latest and greatest offering to attract new business. In order to be viable, they have to have a reasonable path to…

For the second time in twenty years, talk of impeachment is in the air. Like last time, impeachment probably will happen, likely followed quickly by acquittal. The whole show could be over by the end of the year, according to the Speaker of the House. The markets have greeted this news with a giant yawn. Why isn’t impeachment more of…

Not all investment days are created equal. There’s something about the start of Fall today that brings anniversaries to mind. Many people believe August, September and October are cursed times to invest, that stock plunges are inevitable and imminent. A closer look shows that important anniversaries are spread randomly throughout the year; surges and crashes know no calendar. Let’s take…

Our two mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been in the news this month with positive comments. Their stocks and other securities have responded with a sharp jump, indicating hope that we will return to a healthy mortgage market and get the government largely out of the mortgage business. The securities are officially worthless but speculators are betting…

Forty years ago a Business Week cover story announced the “Death of Equities.” The Dow was at 867. In the years since, as the Dow has risen 30x, we’ve seen other forecasts for the tragic demise of stocks, all wrong. In 1979, the doomsayers pointed to inflation and high taxes as the forces that would kill stocks. Healthy skepticism is…