Max Osbon's Posts

IMF on Rates The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook last week, focusing on the messy state of global affairs and the impact that may have on interest rates. They expect interest rates to return to pre-pandemic levels based on the long-term trends that were present before Covid. Those trends include: slowing productivity, aging demographics, de-globalization and the increased…

Rates vs Inflation Yesterday the March CPI print showed a 5% increase YoY, down from 6% in February. The Fed’s interest rate is also 5%, marking this moment as the first time that interest rates have at least matched inflation. It seems likely the Fed will raise rates to 5.25% in three weeks unless something new gives them a reason…

Jamie Dimon released his annual letter this week, giving us some insight into his view of the economy and the largest bank in the US. Here are some notes on what stood out: The term Shadow Banks was highlighted as a major competitive threat to JP Morgan and the entire banking industry. Shadow Banks is a vague term that’s meant…

Fed Balance Sheet The Fed expanded it’s balance sheet by $390B over the past two weeks as part of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) in response to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Starting in April 2022, the Fed began QT (quantitative tightening) reducing the balance sheet by $623B. Two thirds of that tightening was undone in just two…

Rates The Fed raised rates by 0.25% yesterday, as originally anticipated two weeks ago. That was before Powell spooked markets with talk of higher rates for longer, and then regional banks fell apart due rate hike induced bond losses. Despite all of the noise, the predicted 0.25% hike occurred. The next hike is over a month away, with another CPI…

The Banks Big questions remain following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. To start, who is to blame? It’s fair to say that both the Fed and SVB are responsible. The bank clearly mismanaged its risk in the face of rising rates. Social media and mobile apps also dramatically accelerate bank runs. Bond performance doesn’t get the headline coverage it…

The Fed The primary story this week has to do with the change in expectations for the Fed’s rate hikes in the short term. The next rate hike on March 22nd marks the 1 year anniversary since the start of this rate-hike inflation-fighting saga. The Fed has gradually slowed its hikes over the past few months from .75% to .50%…

AI Transition AI growth continues to impress. The number of offerings and the quality seem to improve on a weekly basis. Just about anyone is able to leverage it to their immediate benefit. We discovered ClaraLabs this week, a polite automated scheduling assistant that sends emails and follows up. Like many automated natural language tools, it’s surprisingly sophisticated and performs…

Brief Update On Rates Expectations The Fed’s interest rate policy is still the foot on the back of markets and the economy. 2023 will present us with the tail end of those hikes, but it’s not over yet. On March 22nd, the Fed will likely raise rates from 4.75% to 5%, a quarter-point (.25%) hike. There’s an increasing probability we…