Uneven Recovery, GPT Example, Quick Bites

Uneven Recovery

Yesterday’s latest inflation (CPI) number continues the downward trend, which is exactly what people want to see. The unattractive part of the report was the 7.8% shelter inflation, which is a core issue. More on that below. While the S&P and the Nasdaq are recovering just fine, many asset classes are still down badly. The long-duration Treasury market is -40% off the highs and the average bond index is -20%. The venture capital index indicates VC valuations are still down -45% from the highs.

The Fed continues to talk about whether or not they should raise rates again, but that does not matter anymore. A strong stock market is a leading indicator of a strong economy. Confidence goes up when the stock market is up. This particular rally started with AI leaders and beneficiaries, and that appears to be spilling over into other areas. The rest of the world, and the UK in particular, still have more inflation problems than we do in the US. The falling US dollar, which has been in a downward trend since October, gives support to the international recovery.


General Real Estate Data

At a broad level, 33% of today’s income goes toward housing, higher than the average of the past 50 years. There is too much demand and too little supply. In 2012 that same figure was at a low of 14%. There was a period from 1979-1985, when inflation was also running hot, where this figure ranged from 33% to 50%. Mortgage rates hit 18% over that period. Unfortunately, the real estate market takes time to adjust so it may be a while before housing becomes more affordable. About 18-20% of all home purchases since the pandemic are by investors, which is up from 6-8% 20 years ago.


GPT Meal Plan

My comment last week on using ChatGPT to generate a meal plan got more attention than usual. Here is the prompt and result link in case you want to tweak or test it yourself. https://chat.openai.com/share/59e28185-e2fb-41e3-99eb-5763bd534f92

Someone has already turned this into a formal application via ChefGPT. Applications like these are essentially “skins” that sit on top of the ChatGPT engine.


Quick Bites

  • To The (Actual) Moon – There are five current lunar projects in the US, India, Russia and Japan that plan to visit the moon before the end of 2023. It’s a safe bet that all five will be delayed, but I’d love to see this happen. RedBull and GoPro should sponsor at least one of them.
  • Seizure Sensor – Standia National Labs has created a seizure sensor based on changes in body chemistry 22 minutes before seizures occur. Apple Watch should get on this ASAP. This is a great example of how incredible our regular technological advancements are. An Apple Watch would be able to alert family, friends and medics before seizures happen, dramatically improving care and safety.
  • Transistor’s 75th birthday – In 1947 we invented the first transistor. Today the semiconductor industry produces an estimated 2*10^21 (2 trillion billion) transistors annually. Advanced chips house billions of transistors. I don’t believe in the “progress stopped a long time ago” narratives. It seems that progress is alive and well.
  • Elon Musk started another company called X.AI that aims to answer the universe’s questions. No one knows what it means, but it’s provocative. That makes six companies that he’s in charge of including SpaceX, Twitter, Tesla, The Boring Company and Neuralink.

Weekly Articles by Osbon Capital Management:

"*" indicates required fields