Weekly Articles by Osbon Capital Management:
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A Look At Business Cycle Confidence
The business cycle has gone onward and upward for ten years. That has meant positive returns for investors in equities, debt and real estate alike. The question of when it ends seems to be a perennial question. It’s a question that we hear often from clients, prospects, friends and family. Headlines can be particularly unhelpful as their news model is often reliant on triggering emotional reactions for clicks. To us, it doesn’t look like the cycle ends anytime soon. Here is why:
A Late Stage Market Melt-UP
Without doubt the investment year is off to a great start. The stock market in the US is up 8%. January’s return is the best one since 1987. The way things are going we could see a repeat of 2013, one of the best diversified return years ever. What is going right and what could go wrong? Why January is…
House, Home or Investment?
We have made comments before about investing in real estate. This week our entire article is devoted to investment real estate. The goal of allocating money to real estate is largely the same as putting money into stocks. The investor wants growth and income. The similarities end there.
Information Shutdown
The government shutdown is now entering its fourth week, cutting off a large source of useful information for investors. How are investors supposed to keep track of what is going on financially and economically without government statistics? It’s our job to work around difficult situations. Here is what we, and investors, can count on during an information drought.
Why Volatility Is Here To Stay
Eight hundred point swings in the Dow have been alarmingly regular events in the last month. Swings that large represent a 3% change in the 30 most important stocks in the United States — in one day. And it’s not just the Dow. Similar moves have been hitting the S&P 500 and stock markets outside the US. Even the benchmark 10 year US Treasury bond has been flip flopping with large price changes. Is this the new and harmless normal or a brightly flashing warning sign? Let’s start the year with a closer look at these dramatic ups and downs.
Restful Holidays To You and Yours
By now Hannukah and Christmas are over, and the New Year has yet to arrive. Amidst the ebbs and flows of markets, business and life, this window of time presents a perfect opportunity to simply, relax. Yes, one of the hardest things to do is to relax and enjoy this time of year with loved ones. At the same time, you can be grateful for all that you have – life, health, challenge, mystery, friends, companions and family. There will be plenty of time in the New Year to talk about investments in 2019 and 2020. Let’s enjoy the waning days of 2018 and celebrate them.
When Markets Say One Thing And Do Another
Many commentators on the short-term state of markets are warning that investment results could get much worse. Bond and stock markets, both domestic and international, have been testing investor patience over the last few months. The attention-hungry headlines don’t square with many of today’s realities. Here is some added context.
Trade wars and your portfolio – 3 measures
War is a big word and usually cause for concern among investors. I’ll limit this article to the financial aspects of a war because this war I am talking about is overwhelmingly financial. When the word war is mentioned many older people think of the Cold War. The Cold War was much more than financial and ended decades ago. Now the phrase Trade War is in the air. How can you tell the effect on your portfolio of a Trade War?
If I’m Holding Cash, Where Should It Be?
Intense market volatility over the last few months has been a good reminder that money needed in the next 3 to 24 months should not be in stocks. It should be in a safe, interest-generating investment. The first option that comes to mind is usually bank CDs with FDIC insurance. CDs, like many heavily marketed investment products, are often not the optimal choice. Here is what we are doing with cash today.
