Max Osbon's Posts

Apple’s Convergence Device – Health One of the amazing things about software is that it gives engineers near infinite creation and creativity abilities. In particular, the iPhone is an excellent playground for testing new products and features because we carry it everywhere we go, it’s always on, and it’s full of useful sensors that can be used to record the…

Bear or Bull There are many people out there who make a lot of money telling people the world is going to end. Unfortunately, we’re wired to heed these warnings, and there’s not much we can do to change that. The results tell a different story. In the face of even the worst circumstances, bull market growth outpaces bear market…

Fusion While we deal with the fallout from Covid, political divides, the Ukraine invasion, supply chain issues, inflation and monetary policy changes, innovation and progress still manage to find a way to push forward. Bad news elicits strong emotional reactions, which drives more advertising revenue, and progress rarely gets the attention it deserves. The following is a positive story on…

Commodities Falling Commodity market prices have dropped swiftly over the past few weeks, which should help ease inflation worries. Oil is almost back where it was pre-Ukraine invasion, in the mid $ 90’s. Copper is down -30% from its high in February. Natural gas is down -40% over the past month, which translates to lower prices for fertilizer and electricity….

Buffett’s History When markets are down, it can be a helpful exercise to review market history to see what lessons we can learn about how people handled volatility in the past. Warren Buffett’s 40 years of annual public letters are an excellent resource for reviewing market history, and you can view them here. Even the most successful investor of all…

Summer of Calm After many months of negative news and extremely negative market sentiment, we may finally be reaching a point where investors have a moment to breathe and digest all of the new changes. Recently, bond markets and commodity markets have fallen sharply from their intense highs, signaling a possible relief for inflation numbers. The Fed, the main player…

Stanley Druckenmiller, The Fed & Markets The Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by .75% yesterday, doubling the current rate from .75% to 1.50%. For context, the previous high was 2.25% in July 2019. We cut the rate to 1.5% by November 2019 and then sent it straight to 0% once Covid started. ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ is considered an…

Apple’s Dominance Continues Before we get into the main story about Apple, let’s take a quick look at the scope of its economic dominance. Using rough numbers, Apple currently produces $100B in revenue per quarter: 50% from the iPhone, 30% from laptops, ipads and wearables, and 20% from services. That services component is the fastest growing with the highest margin…